UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Francis Marshall (Featherweight, Prelims)

Polymarket Sports › UFC & boxing Starts Sat 5:00 PM ET · $200 today · $6.7K traded · $813 at stake · prices read 3 days ago

The odds

Gaston Bolaños50%

Francis Marshall51%

How the odds have moved

Francis Marshall: 50% on Oct 20, 51% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Francis Marshall	51%		50¢	51¢	$1.96	$3.4K
Gaston Bolaños	50%		49¢	50¢	$2.00	$3.4K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Gaston Bolaños, Francis Marshall

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Contender Series standout books Octagon debut for UFC 335MMA Mania · 5 days ago“The Career Ender” has his Octagon debut set. Top Welterweight prospect and Contender Series standout Ronald Humphrey will make his Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) debut against Nikolay Veretennikov at UFC 335 on Sat., Dec. 12, 2026…
Undefeated Welterweight prospect steps in for UFC Halloween co-main eventMMA Mania · 7 days agoTop Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Welterweight prospect Jacobe Smith will step in on 12 days’ notice to face veteran Randy Brown in the UFC Vegas 123 co-main event next weekend (Sat., Oct. 31, 2026) inside Meta Apex in Las Vegas…
Dakota Hope looks to exposure “a lot of openings” in Francis Marshall’s gameMy MMA News · 6 days agoMyMMANews Interview with Dakota Hope Dakota Hope (11-2) discusses his featherweight fight against Francis Marshall (10-3) at UFC Fight Night on Oct. 31. Dakota also spoke about training with UFC champion Joshua Van, how much notice he had…

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Settles onufc.com

StartsOct 31, 2026 5:00 PM ET

Trading closesOct 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$6.7K

Today$200

This week$6.7K

At stake$813

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to "Gaston Bolaños" if Gaston Bolaños is officially declared the winner of the fight against Francis Marshall at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan, scheduled for October 31, 2026. It will resolve to "Francis Marshall" if Francis Marshall is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 14, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions