#2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?

Polymarket Finance › Companies Closes Fri 7:59 PM ET · $2.1K today · $3.1K traded · $1.3K at stake · prices read 15 min ago

The odds

38%Vinted: Pre-loved marketplace

Vinted: Pre-loved marketplace38%▲ 1
Muse from Meta18%▲ 8
ChatGPT15%▼ 11
TikTok Pro - Events10%
Claude by Anthropic10%▲ 6
KICK - Live Streaming6%▼ 4
McDonald's4%▼ 1

How the odds have moved

Not enough history yet.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Vinted: Pre-loved marketplace	38%	▲ 1	12¢	66¢	$1.52	$1.6K
Muse from Meta	18%	▲ 8	9¢	28¢	$3.60	$298
ChatGPT	15%	▼ 11	14¢	16¢	$6.25	$956
TikTok Pro - Events	10%		1¢	20¢	$5.00
Claude by Anthropic	10%	▲ 6	0¢	20¢	$5.03	$70
KICK - Live Streaming	6%	▼ 4	3¢	10¢	$10.20	$149
McDonald's	4%	▼ 1	2¢	6¢	$17.86	$20

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Apple App Store, Free App

Search ›

No recent headlines name this market's subject.

Related markets

All companies ›

Finance › Companies

Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?

>99%chance

Finance › Companies

Largest Company end of December 2026?

71%NVIDIA

NVIDIA71%▲ 5
Apple26%▼ 2
Alphabet2%

5 more

Microsoft<1%
SpaceX<1%
Tesla<1%
Saudi Aramco<1%
Amazon<1%

Finance › Companies

Largest Company end of October 2026?

89%NVIDIA

NVIDIA89%▲ 10
Apple10%▼ 11
Alphabet1%▲ 1

6 more

Microsoft<1%
Tesla<1%
Saudi Aramco<1%
Broadcom<1%
Amazon<1%
SpaceX<1%

Finance › Companies

AI bubble burst by...?

20%June 30, 2027

December 31, 20268%
June 30, 202720%▲ 3

Finance › Companies

CoreWeave announces bankruptcy by...?

28%December 31, 2029

December 31, 202710%▼ 2
December 31, 202822%
December 31, 202928%

Finance › Companies

The Cheesecake Factory comparable restaurant sales in Q3 (comparable restaurant sales in Q3 2026)

9.54%median

3%12.5%

Median 9.54%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesOct 23, 2026 7:59 PM ET

Traded$3.1K

Today$2.1K

This week$3.1K

At stake$1.3K

In the news1 headlines today, 13 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #2 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. If the chart is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET, this market may remain open for up to 48 hours to allow for the data to become available. If the data remains unavailable, this market will resolve according to the last published ranking. To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https:

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Prices it is about

McDonald's CorporationMCD · about the company242.67−0.12%
Apple Inc.AAPL · about the company342.94−0.15%

From 4Search Finance. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.