Will Tradeweb (TW) beat quarterly earnings?

Polymarket Finance › Earnings Closes Thu 4:00 PM ET · $3K traded · $1.9K at stake · prices read 53 min ago

The odds

50%chance▲ 3

How the odds have moved

Yes: 20% on Oct 20, 50% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

Oct 27, 1 PM ET41% → 50%

No headline about it in the hours around this move.
Oct 24, 9 PM ET40% → 32%
- Key deals this week: Visa, London Stock Exchange, Tradeweb Markets, Salesforce, and moreSeeking Alpha · 4 days ago

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Yes	50%	▲ 3	38¢	61¢	$1.64	$3K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Tradeweb

Search ›

Tradeweb adds T-bill trading to ICD PortalThe TRADE · 4 days agoNew offering is the first development ahead of future corporate treasurer workflow integration; launch follows Tradeweb’s acquisition of ICD in 2024. Tradeweb has expanded its offering for corporate treasurers, through the launch of direct…
Key deals this week: Visa, London Stock Exchange, Tradeweb Markets, Salesforce, and moreSeeking Alpha · 4 days agoThis week's M&A roundup covers Visa, Salesforce, LSEG and more, highlighting major cross-sector dealmaking and market moves. Here's a list of key deals reported across sectors this week: Visa Inc. (V) is said to be in advanced discussions…
Tradeweb's acquisition of Trumid puts consolidation at the forefrontBond Buyer · 6 days agoTradeweb plans to acquire trading platform Trumid for nearly $2 billion, the latest trend in an evolving market where companies have turned to acquisitions to compete and scale their businesses. Competition over the last decade has driven…
Tradeweb to Buy Trumid for $1.97bn in Credit PushLeapRate · 6 days agoTradeweb Markets Inc. has agreed to buy Trumid Holdings, LLC, a US credit trading platform, adding new-issue and grey-market bond trading and a client base of hedge funds and systematic traders. Tradeweb Markets Inc. (Nasdaq: TW) has…
Analysts’ Opinions Are Mixed on These Financial Stocks: Tradeweb Markets (TW), Principal Financial (PFG) and Zions Bancorporation National Association (ZION)The Globe and Mail · 6 days agoAnalysts have been eager to weigh in on the Financial sector with new ratings on Tradeweb Markets (TW), Principal Financial (PFG) and Zions Bancorporation National Association (ZION). In a report released today, Benjamin Budish from…
Tradeweb Markets Inc (TW) Stock Up 4.1% and Still Undervalued -- GF Score: 87/100@gurufocus · 7 days agoOn October 20, 2026, Tradeweb Markets Inc TW shares rose 4.1% to $119.37, showing strong price performance amid a 52-week trading range of $91.42 to $127.69. The stock's upward momentum reflects positive investor sentiment and market…
Tradeweb Extends Across Full Bond Lifecycle with TrumidMarkets Media · 7 days agoBilly Hult, chief executive of Tradeweb Markets said the timing of the acquisition Trumid Holdings is “compelling” as it will allow the multi-asset electronic trading platform to cover the full bond lifecycle from trade inception to the…
Tradeweb to Buy Credit Trading Platform Trumid for $1.97 BillionSecurities.io · 8 days agoTradeweb Markets Inc. (TW ) announced on October 19, 2026, that it has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Trumid Holdings, LLC, a financial technology company and electronic credit trading marketplace, for a purchase price of…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Settles onseekingalpha.com

Trading closesOct 29, 2026 4:00 PM ET

Traded$3K

This week$290

At stake$1.9K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

As of market creation, Tradeweb is estimated to release earnings on October 29, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Tradeweb’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.04 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tradeweb reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $1.04 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Tradeweb releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00p

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Prices it is about

Tradeweb Markets Inc.TW · about the company120.81−2.14%

From 4Search Finance. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions