Who will attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?

Polymarket Sports › Soccer Closes Nov 30 · $13.1K today · $76.3K traded · $19.4K at stake · prices read 20 min ago

The odds

98%Harry Kane

Harry Kane98%▲ 2
Ousmane Dembélé97%▲ 2
Rodri95%▲ 8
Lamine Yamal95%
Kylian Mbappé82%▲ 8
Michael Owen63%▼ 7
David Beckham56%▼ 22
Lionel Messi49%
Xavi Hernandez28%▼ 1
Sergio Ramos27%▼ 3
Kaka25%▼ 9
Zinedine Zidane24%▼ 12

2 more

Vinícius Júnior17%
Cristiano Ronaldo3%▼ 1

How the odds have moved

Not enough history yet.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Harry Kane	98%	▲ 2	97¢	99¢	$1.01	$4.8K
Ousmane Dembélé	97%	▲ 2	97¢	98¢	$1.03	$5.8K
Rodri	95%	▲ 8	94¢	97¢	$1.04	$9K
Lamine Yamal	95%		94¢	95¢	$1.05	$1.5K
Kylian Mbappé	82%	▲ 8	80¢	84¢	$1.19	$3K
Michael Owen	63%	▼ 7	60¢	65¢	$1.54	$3.1K
David Beckham	56%	▼ 22	54¢	57¢	$1.75	$2.6K
Lionel Messi	49%		48¢	49¢	$2.04	$8.7K
Xavi Hernandez	28%	▼ 1	27¢	30¢	$3.33	$4.8K
Sergio Ramos	27%	▼ 3	26¢	27¢	$3.70	$7.2K
Kaka	25%	▼ 9	24¢	25¢	$4.00	$4.2K
Zinedine Zidane	24%	▼ 12	21¢	26¢	$3.85	$6.4K
Vinícius Júnior	17%		16¢	17¢	$5.88	$9.2K
Cristiano Ronaldo	3%	▼ 1	1¢	4¢	$25.64	$6K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Ballon d'Or, Harry Kane, Ousmane Dembélé

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No recent headlines name this market's subject.

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesNov 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$76.3K

Today$13.1K

This week$76.3K

At stake$19.4K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to be held in London on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the event is canceled or postponed beyond November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, attending the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is defined as being in physical attendance during any part of the event. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.