How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in October?

Polymarket Economy › Rates & bonds Closes Sat 11:59 PM ET · $758 today · $23.9K traded · $6.5K at stake · prices read 22 min ago

The odds

5.67%6.05%

How the odds have moved

5.70%: 10% on Oct 20, 3% now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
✓ 5.67% >99% ▲ 31 100¢ 100¢ $776
5.70% 3% 1¢ 4¢ $25.64 $3.2K
5.73% 3% ▲ 1 1¢ 5¢ $22.22 $5.3K
5.76% 3% 1¢ 4¢ $25.64 $1.9K
5.80% 3% ▲ 1 1¢ 5¢ $22.22 $4.1K
5.85% 2% ▲ 1 1¢ 4¢ $27.03 $2.2K
5.90% 2% 1¢ 3¢ $32.26 $2.1K
5.95% 2% 1¢ 3¢ $29.41 $1.6K
6.00% 2% 1¢ 5¢ $22.22 $2.8K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Treasury

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  • Scott Bessent says Iran's economy is 'collapsing' as Treasury tightens financial viseFox Business · 5 h agoTreasury Secretary Scott Bessent joins Brian Kilmeade to discuss President Donald Trump's economic crackdown on Iran, mounting pressure on the Iranian regime, trade tensions with Canada and Mexico and the outlook for the U.S. economy…
  • U.S. Treasury yields inch lower as investors look ahead to the Fed's rate decisionCNBC · 16 h agoU.S. Treasury yields inched lower Monday as investors look ahead to the central bank's interest rate decision and await a flurry of economic data this week. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was down less than 1 basis point to 4.98%…
  • Tipalti launches treasury solutionAccounting Today · 3 h agoNumeral announced the launch of a partner program for accounting and advisory firms, offering revenue sharing and firm development support. From charitable gifts to opportunity zone gains, here are fourth-quarter tax moves advisors should…
  • Ripple Equips Its Treasury Tool With New CapabilitiesPYMNTS.com · 5 h agoBlockchain company Ripple has announced new capabilities for its treasury product. The updated Ripple Treasury allows businesses to manage cash, payments and liquidity around the clock, the company said in its announcement Monday (Oct…
  • Brazil Treasury Buys Back US$1.3B of BondsThe Rio Times · 7 h ago—The buyback. Brazil’s Treasury bought back about R$7.1 billion (US$1.3 billion) of fixed-rate NTN-F bonds on Monday. —The trigger. Long-term borrowing costs jumped after President Lula won re-election on Sunday with 51.79% of valid votes…
  • The $1 Trillion Treasury Shock Brewing In JapanForbes · 9 h agoFor decades, Japanese investors hunted for income abroad because rates at home were too low. Not anymore. Last week, Japan auctioned a batch of 20-year government bonds to record demand. Investors submitted bids worth 5.84 times the amount…
  • Ripple Treasury Goes 24/7, Lets AI Move Corporate CashCrypto News Flash · 7 h agoCorporate treasury is going always-on. 🌐 Today, we're introducing new Ripple Treasury capabilities that bring together AI-powered automation, liquidity management, and digital asset infrastructure to help businesses manage and move money…
  • Democrats Ask Treasury About Delayed IRS DataPolitical Wire · 4 h ago“Rep. Mike Thompson (D-CA), the top Democrat on the House Ways and Means Tax Subcommittee, and nine of his fellow tax writers are demanding the Treasury Department explain why it is delaying the release of tax-filing data showing how…
  • Evernorth secures $80M equity facility to expand XRP treasuryCrypto Briefing · 8 h agoThe Nasdaq listed XRP treasury company plans to use the financing for additional XRP acquisitions, ecosystem development and corporate operations. Evernorth Holdings (NASDAQ: XRPN) has secured a committed equity facility potentially worth…
  • Ripple Treasury Introduces Always-On Corporate Treasury Platform to Modernize Corporate Cash ManagementRipple · 19 h agoNew orchestration capabilities connect treasury workflows, AI, payments, and choice of rails while 24/7 Returns allow businesses to put operating cash to work beyond traditional banking hours with Ripple USD (RLUSD)
  • Bitcoin Treasury Analyst: MSTR, ASST & Metaplanet Digital Credit OutlookBitcoin Magazine · 10 h agoMetaplanet moves to the U.S. to issue preferreds. Allard Peng breaks down the capital pool, parent support questions, and why it's accretive to common shares. Bitcoin Treasury Analyst: MSTR, ASST & Metaplanet Digital Credit Outlook…
  • Ripple expands corporate treasury platform with AI automation and 24/7 returnsCrypto Briefing · 6 h agoRipple Treasury adds an expanded GSmart AI layer and around-the-clock returns on eligible digital assets for corporate finance teams Ripple wants to sit at the center of how big companies manage their money, and it just gave its treasury…

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions