October Inflation US - Annual
3.7%median
3.15%4.35%
Median 3.7%Middle half 3.67% – 3.74%
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Core PCE YoY - September 2026
The odds
3.08%median
2.65%3.35%
Median 3.08%Middle half 3.03% – 3.13%
How the odds have moved
Median: 3.09% on Oct 20, 3.08% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤2.7% | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $100.00 | $2.6K | |
| 2.8% | <1% | 0¢ | $547 | |||
| 2.9% | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $2.7K | ||
| 3.0% | 30% | ▼ 2 | 28¢ | 30¢ | $3.33 | $13.7K |
| 3.1% | 54% | ▲ 5 | 51¢ | 53¢ | $1.89 | $7.6K |
| 3.2% | 6% | ▼ 9 | 1¢ | 10¢ | $9.62 | $2.2K |
| 3.3%+ | 9% | 6¢ | 11¢ | $9.52 | $1.3K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: inflation, CPI, consumer prices
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‘We don’t have inflation’? Five charts show the US economic reality of Trump’s second term so farAs the US midterm elections approach, we take a look at data to see a true picture of the US economy under Trump With the midterm elections fast approaching, many Americans have the economy on their minds. US voters are exhausted by years… -
Nasdaq 100: Fed, PCE Inflation and Tech Earnings in FocusThis week brings several high-volatility risk events for the Nasdaq. These include the Fed interest rate decision, earnings of major technology companies (Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon) and the September Core PCE inflation data. The Federal… -
US Treasury yields hold steady ahead of fed rate decision, PCE inflation data and key US economic reports this weekUS Treasury yields remained mostly steady on Monday as investors prepared for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and several important economic reports due this week. Investors are watching these updates to understand the… - Crypto Market Outlook: What to Expect Ahead of FOMC and US PCE Inflation DataRipple-BCG Report Highlights $100M Bank Profit Potential BNB Foundation Completes 37th Quarterly BNB Token Burn Patrick Witt Confirms White House Exit, Eyes Private Sector Standard Chartered Launches Crypto Trading in UAE for Clients…
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Australian Dollar retreats from recent peak as RBA hike odds rise ahead CPIAUD/USD edges lower on Monday, trading around 0.7015 at the time of writing, down 0.24% on the day. The pair retreats after reaching its highest level in a month earlier in the day, as investors adopt a cautious stance ahead of several… -
TIPS or Dividend Stocks? How Retirees Can Keep Up With InflationTwo very different tools promise to shield retirement income from rising prices, but each carries a trap the other avoids. Knowing which trap you can live with changes the answer entirely. The Treasury sells TIPS in 5-, 10-, or 30-year… -
Fuel price pressures push consumer inflation higherUpdated Oct. 21, 2026, 11:47 a.m. | By Tsakane Mhlongo September inflation climbed to 4.5%, with higher transport costs and global oil prices adding pressure on households. Annual consumer price inflation increased from 4.4% in August to… -
A Perfect Storm for Bitcoin? Fed, PCE, GDP and Big Tech Earnings AheadBitcoin, crypto, and the overall financial system enter one of the busiest macro weeks of the year with the Federal Reserve, fresh inflation and GDP data, and a wave of Big Tech earnings all arriving within days. With BTC already… -
Small Business Owners Are Quietly Paying For Inflation With Their PayOne in three U.S. small business owners is covering rising costs out of their own paycheck rather than raising prices, a KeyBank survey of 1,500 owners found. Customers are also trading down, which leaves little room for increases. The… - Top 10 African countries with the highest inflation rates as of September 2026Inflation remains elevated across several African economies, with Malawi recording the highest rate among the countries reviewed at 19.40% in September 2026, followed by Rwanda at 17.20% and Libya at 16.60%. The data reflects the most…
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Roger Ferguson: Fed likely to hold rates this week, but two hikes are necessary to tackle inflationFormer Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Roger Ferguson joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the Fed's two-day policy meeting this week, state of the economy, the central bank's inflation fight, rate path outlook, and more. Roger Ferguson: Fed likely… -
Trump failed to stop inflation. Republicans may pay the price in midterm electionsFilling up a basic Ford F-150 truck now costs about $100, up $30 from a year ago. Mortgage rates have jumped to levels that have depressed home sales. And for the past 12 months, consumer prices have risen faster than paychecks, making the…
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All inflation ›CPI in November (Nov 2026)
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions