Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of December?

Polymarket Tech › AI Closes Dec 31 · $180 today · $11.2K traded · $1.6K at stake · prices read 3 h ago

The odds

50%Anthropic

Anthropic50%▼ 1
Google38%
Tencent7%
StepFun7%▲ 1
Microsoft6%
DeepSeek6%▲ 1
MiniMax5%
OpenAI5%
Mistral4%
Meta4%
Moonshot4%▲ 1
Z.ai1%

9 more

Xiaomi1%
Meituan1%
SpaceXAI1%
Alibaba1%
Baidu1%
Nvidia1%
Amazon1%
ByteDance1%
Thinky1%

How the odds have moved

Not enough history yet.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Anthropic	50%	▼ 1	48¢	51¢	$1.96	$4.4K
Google	38%		37¢	38¢	$2.63	$2.7K
Tencent	7%		1¢	14¢	$7.41	$206
StepFun	7%	▲ 1	0¢	13¢	$7.75	$206
Microsoft	6%		1¢	12¢	$8.55	$231
DeepSeek	6%	▲ 1	0¢	12¢	$8.40	$206
MiniMax	5%		0¢	11¢	$9.43	$224
OpenAI	5%		1¢	10¢	$10.00	$234
Mistral	4%		0¢	8¢	$12.50	$227
Meta	4%		1¢	7¢	$14.29	$206
Moonshot	4%	▲ 1	0¢	7¢	$14.49	$206
Z.ai	1%		0¢	2¢	$50.00	$206
Xiaomi	1%		0¢	1¢	$100.00	$206
Meituan	1%		0¢	1¢	$100.00	$206
SpaceXAI	1%		0¢	1¢	$100.00	$206
Alibaba	1%		0¢	1¢	$100.00	$244
Baidu	1%		0¢	1¢	$100.00	$206
Nvidia	1%		0¢	1¢	$100.00	$186
Amazon	1%		0¢	1¢	$100.00	$206
ByteDance	1%		0¢	1¢	$100.00	$206
Thinky	1%		0¢	1¢	$100.00	$221

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: AI model, artificial intelligence, Text Arena Math AI

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No recent headlines name this market's subject.

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Tech › AI

Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of November?

57%Anthropic

Anthropic57%▲ 3
Google25%
Meta7%▲ 1

18 more

OpenAI5%
Meituan3%▲ 1
Nvidia3%
Alibaba1%
Z.ai1%
Baidu1%
ByteDance<1%
Tencent<1%
Moonshot<1%
DeepSeek<1%
Mistral<1%
Amazon<1%
Xiaomi<1%
StepFun<1%
Thinky<1%
MiniMax<1%
SpaceXAI<1%
Microsoft<1%

Tech › AI

Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of October?

53%Google

Google53%
Anthropic39%▼ 4
OpenAI4%

17 more

Meta2%
Moonshot<1%
ByteDance<1%
Mistral<1%
Xiaomi<1%
Nvidia<1%
Alibaba<1%
SpaceXAI<1%
Baidu<1%
Z.ai<1%
DeepSeek<1%
MiniMax<1%
Meituan<1%
Amazon<1%
Tencent<1%
StepFun<1%
Microsoft<1%

Tech › AI

Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...?

24%December 31, 2029

December 31, 202710%
December 31, 202817%▼ 2
December 31, 202924%

Tech › AI

DeepSeek market share this week (DeepSeek market share - Oct 19, 2026)

26.25%median

21.6%29%

Median 26.25%Middle half 25.44% – 27.27%

Tech › AI

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?

Oct 26, 2026even chance by

October 2121%▼ 22
October 2237%▼ 27
October 2441%▼ 37

2 more

October 3178%▼ 5
December 3198%

Tech › AI

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

73%Google

Google73%▲ 3
Anthropic25%▼ 5
OpenAI1%

18 more

Meta<1%
Alibaba<1%
Moonshot<1%
Baidu<1%
Z.ai<1%
Xiaomi<1%
SpaceXAI<1%
DeepSeek<1%
Amazon<1%
ByteDance<1%
Nvidia<1%
Thinky<1%
MiniMax<1%
Mistral<1%
Meituan<1%
Tencent<1%
StepFun<1%
Microsoft<1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$11.2K

Today$180

This week$11.2K

At stake$1.6K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. I

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Prices it is about

Amazon.com, Inc.AMZN · about the company262.45+4.98%
Alibaba Group Holding LimitedBABA · about the company108.57−0.49%
Baidu, Inc.BIDU · about the company79.78−0.45%
GOOGLGOOGL · about the company
Meta Platforms, Inc.META · about the company705.44−0.55%
Microsoft CorporationMSFT · about the company533.52+0.84%
NVIDIA CorporationNVDA · about the company217.09+1.38%

From 4Search Finance. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.