Install
Will Talarico and Paxton debate live by...?
The odds
- October 314%▼ 1
How the odds have moved
October 31: 12% on Oct 20, 4% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 23, 11 PM ETOctober 31: 12% → <1%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
- Oct 20, 11 PM ETOctober 31: 12% → 22%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 15 | <1% | ▼ 4 | 0¢ | $5.6K | ||
| October 31 | 4% | ▼ 1 | 2¢ | 6¢ | $16.13 | $35.7K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Talarico and Paxton
Search ›-
Exclusive / Paxton, Talarico accuse each other of being outsidersSELMA, Texas — James Talarico and Ken Paxton are both attacking one another as outsiders more beholden to California than Texas in the closing days of their competitive Senate race. Onstage at a Paxton rally at a dance hall in the San… - Trump, Talarico to hold dueling rallies in Texas with Senate control at stakePresident Donald Trump and Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico are playing a version of Texas hold'em — with a high-stakes contest for one of the most closely watched Senate races of the year on the line, and no time to bluff or…
-
JD Vance to hold midterm rally in Weatherford, Texas, amid tight Paxton-Talarico Senate raceOctober 25, 2026 / 9:05 PM CDT / CBS Texas Vice President JD Vance will headline a midterm rally in Weatherford, Texas, this Thursday, the Republican Party announced on Sunday. The rally will be held at JRJ Construction on SW Ric… - Abbott, Paxton campaign across Wichita Falls, Abilene, SangerGet above the noise Log in to follow your topics, join the conversation, and publish a journal of your own. Will Greg Abbott be elected president of the United States in 2028? Polymarket · $41k traded Will Talarico or Paxton win Denton…
-
US Democrats lead by 9 points as Senate map widens into SouthWashington, Oct 19 (IANS) With 16 days to go before the November 3 midterm elections, network polls released on the Sunday shows pointed to a difficult climate for President Donald Trump’s Republicans, with Democrats favoured for the House… -
Texas voters cast early ballots in key senate raceIn Texas, early voting is underway. The state's tight race for U.S. Senate will ultimately help decide the balance of power in Washington. Meanwhile, in Texas, early voting in the midterms is underway. The candidates in the U.S. Senate… -
Talarico leads Paxton in new poll as early voting continues in TexasDemocrat James Talarico (left) and Republican Ken Paxton (right) are vying for the U.S. Senate in Texas. (FOX Local) A new poll shows Democrat James Talarico ahead of Republican Ken Paxton in the race for U.S. Senate as early voting… -
Hottest 2026 Midterm Races—Talarico, Paxton Tied In Fox News Poll (Updated Daily)The pivotal Maine Senate contest is a tie in the latest survey from Fox News, as most other polls indicate Democrats’ chances of retaking both the House and Senate have improved as Election Day nears. Maine: Democrat Troy Jackson is tied… -
Poll: Talarico and Paxton tied in high-stakes Texas Senate battleOAN Staff Lillian Mann3:50 PM – Thursday, October 22, 2026 Texas has stood as a reliable conservative stronghold for decades, but the Lone Star State is now facing a high-stakes battle for the United States Senate. According to a new Fox… -
Commentary: Vice President JD Vance: The Ohio ‘hillbilly’ who learned to punch downJD Vance built a national career as the Ohio hillbilly who could explain what it felt like to be looked down on. Now, as vice president, he is inviting Americans to look and punch down on others. I am a gay man in Sandusky, Ohio. When the… -
🗳️ Get the most important election updates every weekNational party leaders, Gov. Greg Abbott and even actress Eva Longoria are all headed to campaign in San Antonio in the final stretch of the Nov. 3 election. Longoria, a longtime Democratic activist who owns a home in San Antonio , will… -
Winklevoss PAC moves into Texas Senate race with $81K ad buyWhile crypto-aligned PACs have stepped up spending in Ohio, a committee launched by the co-founders of crypto exchange Gemini made one of its first forays into the Lone Star State. Digital Freedom Fund, the Super political action committee…
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions