Lowest Mississippi level at St. Louis by November 30?

Polymarket Weather › Daily weather Closes Dec 1 · $6.2K today · $68.3K traded · $6.7K at stake · prices read 8 min ago

The odds

28%-1.00 to 0.99 ft

-1.00 to 0.99 ft28%▲ 7
-3.00 to -1.01 ft24%▼ 11
1.00 to 2.99 ft22%▲ 8
3.00 ft or more14%▲ 5
Below -3.00 ft11%▼ 6

How the odds have moved

-1.00 to 0.99 ft: 24% on Oct 20, 28% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
-1.00 to 0.99 ft	28%	▲ 7	20¢	37¢	$2.70	$19.1K
-3.00 to -1.01 ft	24%	▼ 11	19¢	28¢	$3.58	$17.5K
1.00 to 2.99 ft	22%	▲ 8	19¢	24¢	$4.17	$13.7K
3.00 ft or more	14%	▲ 5	12¢	15¢	$6.71	$14.5K
Below -3.00 ft	11%	▼ 6	3¢	19¢	$5.26	$3.4K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news

No recent headlines name this market's subject.

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Settles onwaterservices.usgs.gov

Trading closesDec 1, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$68.3K

Today$6.2K

This week$15.8K

At stake$6.7K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve according to the lowest gage height (river level), in feet, recorded at the Mississippi River at St. Louis, MO streamgage (USGS site 07010000) between market creation and November 30, 2026, as published by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) for parameter code 00065 under statistic code 30800. Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to "Yes". The lowest daily reading in the window decides this market; the level does not need to be sustained. If USGS does not publish a reading for one or more days, this market will resolve according to the lowest reading among the days that are published. Values will be used exactly as published by USGS, without round

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions