Orange County, California: Xavier Becerra vote percent
50.29%median
42%66%
Median 50.29%Middle half 47.15% – 53.4%
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Collin County, Texas: James Talarico vote percent
The odds
51.42%median
44%62%
Median 51.42%Middle half 49.3% – 53.52%
How the odds have moved
Median: 51.07% on Oct 19, 51.42% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 46% | 96% | ▲ 1 | 93¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | |
| At least 48% | 87% | ▲ 2 | 83¢ | 91¢ | $1.10 | 511 |
| At least 50% | 69% | ▲ 1 | 64¢ | 73¢ | $1.37 | 13.00 |
| At least 52% | 43% | ▲ 1 | 38¢ | 47¢ | $2.13 | 303 |
| At least 54% | 20% | ▲ 1 | 15¢ | 24¢ | $4.17 | 18.00 |
| At least 56% | 7% | 2¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 23.00 | |
| At least 58% | 4% | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | ||
| At least 60% | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Collin County, James Talarico, Texas
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WATCH LIVE: Texas Senate nominee James Talarico holds campaign concert in AustinDemocrat James Talarico speaks to supporters and hosts a "Clear Eyes, Full Hearts" campaign tour concert in Austin, Texas. WATCH LIVE: Texas Senate nominee James Talarico holds campaign concert in Austin Democrat James Talarico speaks to… -
WATCH LIVE: Dem Senate nominee James Talarico holds campaign rally in San AntonioTexas Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico speaks at a "Clear Eyes, Full Hearts" campaign rally in San Antonio. WATCH LIVE: Dem Senate nominee James Talarico holds campaign rally in San Antonio Texas Democratic Senate nominee James… -
Ken Paxton blasts James Talarico as 'radical Democrat' during Texas campaign stopTexas Attorney General Ken Paxton criticized Democratic U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico during a campaign stop, accusing him of supporting socialist policies. Ken Paxton blasts James Talarico as 'radical Democrat' during Texas… -
Democrat James Talarico targets Elon Musk at rally: ‘Texas is not for sale’The Senate candidate denounced opponent Ken Paxton, calling out corruption allegations and support from Musk James Talarico, the Democratic candidate for the US Senate in Texas, has taken aim at Elon Musk, warning that the tech mogul is… -
James Talarico rallies young voters in Austin who are critical to his Senate hopesThe Democrat held a Friday-night rally at the University of Texas at Austin, where multiple students told NBC News they had already voted and worry about the cost of living. AUSTIN, Texas — James Talarico is trying to become the first… -
WATCH LIVE: James Talarico speaks at campaign meet-and-greet in Temple, TXDemocratic U.S. Senate nominee James Talarico speaks with voters during a "Clear Eyes, Full Hearts" campaign tour meet-and-greet in Temple, Texas. WATCH LIVE: James Talarico speaks at campaign meet-and-greet in Temple, TX Democratic U.S… -
WATCH LIVE: Dem Senate nominee James Talarico holds rally in Galveston, TexasDemocratic U.S. Senate nominee James Talarico holds a "Clear Eyes, Full Hearts" campaign rally in Galveston, Texas, to mobilize voters ahead of the midterm election. WATCH LIVE: Dem Senate nominee James Talarico holds rally in Galveston… -
James Talarico’s Radical Record Makes This Close Texas Senate Race an OutrageBy LifeZette News Staff October 26, 2026 James Talarico is campaigning across North Texas as a different kind of Democrat. The 37-year-old Senate nominee quotes Scripture, discusses grocery prices and working families, and presents himself… -
James Talarico digs in with Black voters in pursuit of an elusive Democratic win in TexasWhile Democrats don’t know exactly what a winning Texas coalition looks like, since it’s been 30-plus years since they assembled one, it’s clear that Black voters are critical for Senate candidate James Talarico, whose contest with state… -
Major Ken Paxton Donor Endorses James Talarico in TexasOct 22, 2026 at 04:04 AM EDT A major donor to Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton has announced his support for Democratic opponent James Talarico in the closely watched U.S. Senate race in Texas. “I'm Thomas J. Henry. I'm here to… -
Texas Has Been Democrats’ White Whale. Can James Talarico Finally Catch It This Midterm?For years, Texas has been the Democratic Party’s white whale, an elusive prize that has repeatedly slipped out of reach. With the US midterm elections days away, Democrat James Talarico is giving his party fresh hope of finally turning the… -
Texas Southern Students March To Vote With James TalaricoTexas Southern University students brought HBCU homecoming energy straight to the ballot box on Friday, Oct. 23. Texas Southern University students brought HBCU homecoming energy straight to the ballot box on Friday, Oct. 23, as Houston…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions