Orange County, California: Xavier Becerra vote percent
50.12%median
42%66%
Median 50.12%Middle half 46.96% – 53.24%
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Philadelphia County, Pennsylvania: Josh Shapiro vote percent
The odds
87.35%median
76%98%
Median 87.35%Middle half 86.11% – 88.74%
How the odds have moved
Median: 86.71% on Oct 20, 87.35% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 80% | 97% | 95¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | ||
| At least 84% | 96% | 93¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | ||
| At least 86% | 77% | ▼ 1 | 20¢ | 83¢ | $1.20 | 2.0K |
| At least 87% | 58% | ▲ 1 | 13¢ | 83¢ | $1.20 | 207 |
| At least 88% | 35% | ▲ 1 | 31¢ | 58¢ | $1.72 | 4.9K |
| At least 90% | 8% | 9¢ | 57¢ | $1.75 | 1.7K | |
| At least 92% | 4% | ▲ 1 | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | 336 |
| At least 94% | 3% | 1¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 856 | |
| At least 96% | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 541 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Philadelphia County, Josh Shapiro, Pennsylvania
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Gov. Josh Shapiro touts record, labor support at Pittsburgh campaign rallyOctober 24, 2026 / 11:21 PM EDT / CBS Pittsburgh Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro rallied on Pittsburgh's South Side Saturday as part of a stop on his get-out-the-vote statewide bus tour. The event was held at the IBEW Local 5 Hall 10 days… -
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro Courts Rural GOP Voters, Defends State Elections In CNN InterviewPennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro CNN Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro defended the integrity of his state’s voting systems and laid out his second-term legislative priorities during an interview Sunday on CNN’s “State of the Union.” Speaking… -
Gov. Josh Shapiro criticizes Trump and rallies supporters ahead of gubernatorial electionGovernor Josh Shapiro criticized the Trump administration while encouraging people to vote in the upcoming gubernatorial election at a recent campaign stop in Pittsburgh. Davis said Garrity is “too extreme” for Pennsylvania. “Stacy Garrity… -
Gov. Josh Shapiro campaigns for re-election in PA; discusses jobs, abortion rights, housing costsPENNSYLVANIA - With the midterm elections inching closer, candidates are hitting the campaign trail to win over undecided voters. Gov. Josh Shapiro was recently in Meadville, Pennsylvania - a city in Northwestern Pennsylvania to campaign… -
Gov. Josh Shapiro Kicks Off Bus Tour in Erie Before ElectionWith the general election less than two weeks away, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro kicked off his campaign bus tour in Erie on Saturday morning, where he was greeted by dozens of supporters. Those who attended the kickoff rally said… -
Exclusive – Rep. Scott Perry: Gov. Josh Shapiro Envisions Himself ‘Running for President,’ ‘That’s What He’s Gearing Up For’Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) envisions himself “running for president,” Rep. Scott Perry (R-PA), up for reelection in Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District, said during an appearance on Breitbart News Daily. Perry spoke about… -
Josh Shapiro Headed for Crushing Win in PennsylvaniaA new Franklin & Marshall College poll finds Josh Shapiro (D) leading Stacy Garrity (R) in the governor’s race, 59% to 36%. Governor’s Race Josh Shapiro (D) 59% Stacy Garrity (R) 36% Franklin & Marshall College poll · likely voters · ±4.1%… -
Why Josh Shapiro put himself on the line for the midterms — but still won’t talk about 2028There’s been a noticeable shift in the first-term Democrat, as he's gone all-in to flip the state Senate and is more willing to directly challenge President Donald Trump. That's not by accident. Josh Shapiro knows you’re going to ask. He… -
Can GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, a moderate who's bucked Trump, keep his Pennsylvania swing seat?Over nearly 10 years in Congress, Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick has cultivated an image as a middle-of-the-road GOP lawmaker who operates above the partisan fray and is willing to buck President Donald Trump. "Brian Fitzpatrick is Brian… -
Josh Shapiro maintains lead over Stacy Garrity in Pennsylvania gubernatorial race: pollWHP CBS 21 Harrisburg provides local news, weather, sports, community events and items of interest for Harrisburg Lancaster Lebanon York and nearby towns and communities in the greater Harrisburg area including, Hershey, Hummelstown… -
Josh Shapiro’s second-term push for PA governor: Key issues, background, pollingPENNSYLVANIA - With Election Day less than three weeks away, Gov. Josh Shapiro is asking Pennsylvania voters for a second term as he faces Republican state Treasurer Stacy Garrity on the Nov. 3 ballot. Shapiro, alongside Lt. Gov. Austin… -
Pennsylvania one of the first states to require disclosures on AI-generated adsOctober 22, 2026 / 11:49 PM EDT / CBS Pittsburgh Pennsylvania is becoming one of the first states to require disclosures on artificial intelligence-generated advertisements. On Thursday, Gov. Josh Shapiro signed the bill into law, which…
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54%72%
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Kent County, Michigan: Abdul El-Sayed vote percent
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Wake County, North Carolina: Roy Cooper vote percent
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions