FDA decision: Venglustat by Sanofi (in 2026)

Kalshi Health › FDA & drugs Closes Dec 31 · $794 traded · $520 at stake · prices read 2 h ago

The odds

82%chance▼ 1

How the odds have moved

Yes: 82% on Oct 19, 82% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Yes	82%	▼ 1	78¢	86¢	$1.16	969

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: FDA, Venglustat, Sanofi

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The FDA says there’s no estrogen patch shortage. Women are struggling to fill prescriptions.NBC News · 2 days agoEstrogen patches are the most commonly reported shortage in the U.S., but the FDA says it’s working to boost supply. Women across the country are still struggling to fill prescriptions for estrogen patches.
Sanofi Launches New Priftin® (Rifapentine) Packaging@PRNewswire · 17 h agoNew 24 and 32-Packs Designed to Manage Dosage Regimens for both Latent and Active Tuberculosis Dec 01, 2015, 08:35 ET Sanofi also announced today the introduction of 32-count blister package of Priftin which is tailored for use in the…
FDA issues recall over compounded GLP-1 weight loss drugsFox News · 3 days agoFox News contributor Dr. Stephanie Widmer discusses the recall of certain compounded GLP-1 medications over sterility concerns. FDA issues recall over compounded GLP-1 weight loss drugs Fox News contributor Dr. Stephanie Widmer discusses…
MDMA-assisted therapy could get FDA approval as soon as January, top advocate predicts — but there’s a major problem loomingNew York Post · 2 days agoA drug once synonymous with rave culture could soon be making its way into a very different setting: the therapist’s office. A leading psychedelics advocate is “very optimistic” the Food and Drug Administration could approve MDMA-assisted…
Sanofi Receives FDA Approval of Priftin® (rifapentine) Tablets for the Treatment of Latent Tuberculosis Infection@PRNewswire · 4 days agoSanofi Commitment to Research and Develop TB Treatments, Diagnostics and Vaccines Spans More than 50 Years Dec 02, 2014, 08:35 ET Sanofi is one of the few companies continuing to invest in the management of TB infection. Since the late…
FDA has finalized its guidance on apps related to drugsSTAT · 3 days agoSTAT is a media company focused on finding and telling compelling stories about health, medicine, and scientific discovery. We produce daily news, investigative articles, and narrative projects in addition to multimedia features, podcasts…
FDA to pull common but ineffective cold medicine from marketCBS News · 3 days agoNovember 7, 2024 / 12:32 PM EST / CBS News The Food and Drug Administration announced Wednesday that it would seek to pull a widely used ingredient in cough and cold medicines from the market, after the agency's scientists concluded that…
FDA Approves Subcutaneous Risankizumab Induction for Crohn’s Disease@MDMagazine · 12 h agoApproval rests on the phase 3 AFFIRM trial, in which 56% of patients reached clinical remission at week 12 vs 30% with placebo. The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved a subcutaneous induction regimen of risankizumab-rzaa…
FDA Launches New Accelerator for Alzheimer’s Disease PreventionEuropean Medical Journal · 8 h agoDiscover how the FDA's new accelerator advances Alzheimer's disease prevention trials and delays dementia cognitive decline. Read more. This site is intended for healthcare professionals FDA Launches New Accelerator for Alzheimer’s Disease…
Recent FDA Actions: Spring 2023@AJMC_Journal · 38 h agoIn breast cancer, approval for elacestrant and a new indication for sacituzumab govitecan; approval for pirtobrutinib for mantle cell lymphoma. The primary end point in the study was PFS, and secondary end points included OS, overall…
Telehealth leapfrogs FDA approval with off-label GLP-1 prescriptions for addictionSTAT · 4 days agoSTAT Telehealth leapfrogs FDA approval with off-label GLP-1 prescriptions for addiction Online platforms, experts say, can shift the burden of vetting unapproved drugs on to patients Katie covers the impact of health technology on…
FDA approves once-weekly insulin icodec for pediatric T2D@onclive · 21 h agoThe FDA approved insulin icodec-abae for children 10+ with T2D, based on adult ONWARDS data and a single-dose pediatric pharmacokinetic study. "Children with type 2 diabetes face an aggressive disease trajectory," said Eda Cengiz, MD, MHS…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onAppliedXL

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$794 (969 contracts)

At stake$520

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the FDA's decision on Venglustat by Sanofi in 2026 is a full approval or an accelerated approval, the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions