How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
16%Below 4.00%
3.9%4.55%
Install
Which countries’ U.S. Treasury holdings will increase in 2026?
The odds
85%United Kingdom
- United Kingdom85%
- UAE82%
- France61%
- India53%
- Canada41%
- Norway40%
- Brazil40%
- Saudi Arabia35%
- Taiwan33%
- South Korea33%
- Mainland China16%
- Japan5%
How the odds have moved
United Kingdom: 85% on Oct 20, 85% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | 85% | 84¢ | 85¢ | $1.18 | 2.5K | |
| UAE | 82% | 81¢ | 82¢ | $1.22 | 1.00 | |
| France | 61% | 56¢ | 66¢ | $1.52 | 27.00 | |
| India | 53% | 52¢ | 53¢ | $1.89 | 1.1K | |
| Canada | 41% | 40¢ | 41¢ | $2.44 | 81.00 | |
| Norway | 40% | 35¢ | 45¢ | $2.22 | 401 | |
| Brazil | 40% | 35¢ | 45¢ | $2.22 | 66.00 | |
| Saudi Arabia | 35% | 30¢ | 40¢ | $2.50 | 171 | |
| Taiwan | 33% | 28¢ | 38¢ | $2.63 | 75.00 | |
| South Korea | 33% | 28¢ | 38¢ | $2.63 | 303 | |
| Mainland China | 16% | 14¢ | 18¢ | $5.56 | 8.7K | |
| Japan | 5% | 9¢ | $11.11 | 1.7K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: U.S. Treasury, United Kingdom
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Royal Purple United Kingdom Crown Ears at Walt Disney WorldThe United Kingdom pavilion in EPCOT has a new royal purple ear headband featuring a crown on top. The ears and exterior band are made of a textured sparkly purple fabric. The same purple fabric creates the cap of the crown. The crown… -
Schwab Intermediate-Term U.S. Treasury ETF $SCHR Shares Sold by Christensen King & Associates Investment Services Inc.Christensen King & Associates Investment Services Inc. decreased its holdings in shares of Schwab Intermediate-Term U.S. Treasury ETF (NYSEARCA:SCHR – Free Report) by 70.7% in the 3rd quarter, according to its most recent disclosure with… -
Towercrest Capital Management Makes New Investment in Schwab Short-Term U.S. Treasury ETF $SCHOTowercrest Capital Management bought a new stake in shares of Schwab Short-Term U.S. Treasury ETF (NYSEARCA:SCHO – Free Report) in the 3rd quarter, according to its most recent disclosure with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The… -
Joint Statement by the Foreign Ministers of Australia, Canada, France, and the United Kingdom on the Postponement of Palestinian ElectionsSenator the Hon Penny Wong We, the Foreign Ministers of Australia, Canada, France and the United Kingdom deeply regret the Palestinian President's decision to postpone the Palestinian Legislative Council elections as well as the… -
U.S. Treasury Department proposes expanding tech investment restrictions to N. KoreaWASHINGTON, Oct. 23 (Yonhap) -- The U.S. Treasury Department has proposed expanding restrictions on American investments in sensitive technologies to include North Korea and several other countries, as Washington seeks to prevent… -
3 sentenced in $121 million theft of U.S. Treasury checksThree men who conspired to steal $121 million in U.S. Treasury checks have been sentenced for their roles in the scheme, joining a Delaware County man who was sentenced in August. Saahir Irby, 28, Philadelphia, was sentenced Monday by U.S… -
United Kingdom Retail Sales falls 0.4% MoM in September vs. -0.1% estimatesRetail Sales, a key measure of consumer spending, in the United Kingdom (UK) fell by 0.4% month-over-month (MoM) in September after rising by 0.7% in August (revised from 0.5%), the latest data published by the Office for National… -
U.S. treasury yields edge up, bond market focus to stay on FranceU.S. Treasury yields edged higher in Asian trade on Friday, having slid sharply on Thursday as investors sought safe havens from the turmoil in French government bonds. The 10-year Treasury yield, which fell below 5% for the first time in… -
Investors are betting on U.S. Treasuries as yields riseInvestors are increasingly betting on more upside in U.S. Treasuries, according to analysts at The Kobeissi Letter. This marks a sharp reversal from a 250-basis-point premium for puts over calls in ... Investors are increasingly betting on… -
OPCW Chief Visits United KingdomThe OPCW Director-General Sabrina Dallafior paid an official visit to the United Kingdom from 19 to 20 October 2026. During the visit, she delivered a keynote address at the Chemical Weapons Demilitarisation (CWD) Conference, lectured at… -
Oman and United Kingdom reaffirm commitment to cooperation and economic prosperityMuscat: The United Kingdom and the Sultanate of Oman commit to strengthen and deepen our relationship, monitor progress against agreed priorities, and ensure that cooperation remains focused on mutual benefit, Oman’s Vision 2040, the UK’s…
Related markets
All rates & bonds ›30Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027?
4.9%median
1.74%8.24%
Median 4.9%Middle half 3.66% – 7.19%
10Y US Treasury yield on Oct 26, 2026?
4.99%median
4.78%5.1%
Median 4.99%Middle half 4.96% – 5.03%
How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
26%Below 4.60%
4.4%5.25%
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
22%5.4%
5.3%6.3%
How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
5.13%median
4.95%5.4%
Median 5.13%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.