Tesla deliveries in Q1 2027
461,111median
200,000600,000
Median 461,111Middle half 403,750 – 501,923
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Tesla production in Q1 2027
The odds
433,152median
300,000600,000
Median 433,152Middle half 402,564 – 464,394
How the odds have moved
Not enough history yet.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 325,000 | 96% | 92¢ | $1.04 | 83.00 | ||
| Above 350,000 | 89% | 85¢ | 93¢ | $1.08 | 280 | |
| Above 375,000 | 84% | 80¢ | 88¢ | $1.14 | ||
| Above 400,000 | 77% | 73¢ | 81¢ | $1.23 | 56.00 | |
| Above 425,000 | 57% | 53¢ | 62¢ | $1.61 | 209 | |
| Above 450,000 | 35% | 30¢ | 39¢ | $2.56 | ||
| Above 475,000 | 18% | 14¢ | 22¢ | $4.55 | ||
| Above 500,000 | 8% | 3¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | ||
| Above 525,000 | 5% | 9¢ | $11.11 | 156 | ||
| Above 550,000 | 4% | 8¢ | $12.50 | |||
| Above 575,000 | 4% | 7¢ | $14.29 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Tesla
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Related markets
All companies ›Tesla energy deployment in Q1 2027
13.2median
632
Median 13.2Middle half 10.9 – 15.5
Tesla energy deployment in Q4 (energy storage deployments (GWh) in Q4 2026)
17.7median
626
Median 17.7Middle half 14.9 – 20.1
Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?
>99%chance
Largest Company end of December 2026?
73%NVIDIA
- NVIDIA73%▲ 6
- Apple25%▼ 3
- Alphabet2%
5 more
- Microsoft<1%
- SpaceX<1%
- Tesla<1%
- Saudi Aramco<1%
- Amazon<1%
Largest Company end of October 2026?
89%NVIDIA
- NVIDIA89%▲ 7
- Apple10%▼ 5
- Alphabet1%▲ 1
6 more
- Microsoft<1%
- Tesla<1%
- Saudi Aramco<1%
- Broadcom<1%
- Amazon<1%
- SpaceX<1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.