Which party will win the U.S. House? (2026)
90%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party90%
- Republican Party10%
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Midterms: Trump approval in the exit poll? (Nov 6, 2026)
The odds
36.19%median
28%48%
Median 36.19%Middle half 32% – 39.47%
How the odds have moved
Median: 36.84% on Oct 19, 36.19% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 30% | 88% | 86¢ | 89¢ | $1.12 | 7.00 | |
| Above 32% | 75% | 70¢ | 80¢ | $1.25 | ||
| Above 34% | 65% | ▼ 2 | 62¢ | 68¢ | $1.47 | 415 |
| Above 36% | 52% | ▼ 1 | 47¢ | 56¢ | $1.79 | 276 |
| Above 38% | 36% | 31¢ | 41¢ | $2.44 | ||
| Above 40% | 21% | 16¢ | 26¢ | $3.85 | 62.00 | |
| Above 42% | 16% | 11¢ | 21¢ | $4.76 | 12.00 | |
| Above 44% | 10% | 5¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 13.00 | |
| Above 46% | 6% | 1¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Midterms
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Trump casts his midterm ballot early in FloridaWEST PALM BEACH, Fla. — President Donald Trump cast his ballot in the midterm elections Saturday, saying he voted for all Republicans in Florida before speaking at a Georgia rally. Trump and first lady Melania Trump arrived at their West… -
Trump rallies Republicans in Georgia ahead of midtermsFox News' Madison Scarpino reports from Perry, Georgia, where Trump rallies supporters for Republican candidates. Trump rallies Republicans in Georgia ahead of midterms Fox News' Madison Scarpino reports from Perry, Georgia, where Trump… -
2026 Midterm Elections: Trump, Obama Rally MichiganPresident Donald Trump is set to campaign in Michigan as Democrats deploy Barack Obama and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez while a Justice Department lawsuit threatens to complicate the closely watched Alaska Senate race. President Donald Trump… -
Obama attacks Trump during campaign ahead of US midtermsFormer US President Barack Obama spoke to crowds in Ohio while campaigning for the Democrats on Saturday. Read more about Obama campaigning for the Democrats ahead of the midterm elections. -
Trump claims midterm momentum in tarmac gaggle, attacks Dem rivals in Michigan and Alaska Senate racesSpeaking before departing for Michigan, President Donald Trump argued his campaign blitz has "turned the whole thing around," for the GOP. Trump claims midterm momentum in tarmac gaggle, attacks Dem rivals in Michigan and Alaska Senate… -
‘Brilliant James’ helped return Trump to the White House. Can he conquer the midterms?James Blair’s data-driven approach delivered victory in 2024 but president’s unpopularity and idiosyncratic style do not bode well this time They are both young, bald and fathers of four. They are also the brains behind Donald Trump. But… -
These are the midterm deciders: They voted for Trump and now disapprove of himBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. They’re a small but… -
Republicans skeptical of polling data ahead of midtermsHouse Majority Leader Steve Scalise discusses the fight for the House majority. Scalise encourages people to 'show up and vote' in order for GOP to hold the House. Republicans skeptical of polling data ahead of midterms House Majority… -
Poll: Data center backlash builds as midterms nearA POLITICO Poll shows Americans are increasingly against building data centers near their homes and favor candidates who oppose them more than ones who support them. 10/25/2026 7:00 AM EDT Data centers have become a major risk for the… -
Six states are up for grabs this midterm electionThe 'Fox News Sunday' panel analyzes the latest Fox News Power Rankings and battleground poll numbers. The 'Fox News Sunday' panel analyzes the latest Fox News Power Rankings and battleground poll ... Six states are up for grabs this… -
Ohio Senate and governor races tighten ahead of midtermsFox News correspondent Alexandria Hoff reports on the closely watched Ohio Senate and governor races ahead of the midterm elections. Ohio Senate and governor races tighten ahead of midterms Fox News correspondent Alexandria Hoff reports on… -
Why Democrats see a path to victory in Mississippi midterm electionCNN National Political Writer Fredreka Schouten joins Fredricka Whitfield to break down why Democrat Scott Colom is hopeful that he can unseat incumbent Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith. Despite Donald Trump winning the state by 23…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions