US trade deficit for 2026?
180.6median
35.1200
Median 180.6Middle half 170.9 – 190.3
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US trade deficit for 2027
The odds
$800median
$400$1,300
Median $800Middle half $666.10 – $950
How the odds have moved
Median: $800 on Oct 19, $800 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $500 billion | 96% | 93¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | ||
| Above $600 billion | 95% | 90¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | ||
| Above $700 billion | 65% | 60¢ | 70¢ | $1.43 | ||
| Above $800 billion | 50% | 45¢ | 55¢ | $1.82 | ||
| Above $900 billion | 30% | 25¢ | 35¢ | $2.86 | ||
| Above $1.0 trillion | 20% | 15¢ | 25¢ | $4.00 | ||
| Above $1.1 trillion | 10% | 5¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | ||
| Above $1.2 trillion | 7% | 2¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news
No recent headlines name this market's subject.
Related markets
All trade & tariffs ›US trade deficit for 2028
$954.84median
$400$1,300
Median $954.84Middle half $868 – $1,058
US trade deficit for 2029
$975.86median
$400$1,300
Median $975.86Middle half $885 – $1,150
US trade deficit for 2030
$1,058median
$400$1,300
Median $1,058
US trade deficit for 2031
$1,110median
$400$1,300
Median $1,110
US trade deficit for 2032
50%Above $1.2 trillion
$400$1,300
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.