Will SCOTUS reject a benchmark requirement for ERISA fund-underperformance claims? (Before Aug 1, 2028)
13%chance▼ 1
Install
Will SCOTUS treat trademark strength as a factual question? (Before Aug 1, 2028)
The odds
70%chance▲ 5
How the odds have moved
Yes: 66% on Oct 19, 70% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 70% | ▲ 5 | 61¢ | 86¢ | $1.16 | 834 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Supreme Court, SCOTUS
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Justice Kagan criticizes the Supreme Court on elections and votingNPR Justice Kagan criticizes the Supreme Court on elections and voting Supreme Court Justice Elena Kagan told an audience that the conservative majority is blinding itself to the consequences of its decisions on voting rights… -
Brazil's Supreme Court suspends permit for major Amazon gold mineThe Washington Post Brazil’s Supreme Court has suspended an environmental permit for a major gold mining project in the Amazon rainforest BOGOTA, Colombia — Brazil’s Supreme Court has suspended an environmental permit for a major gold… -
Supreme Court allows gender transition care for federal prisoners for nowThe Washington Post During his first days in office, President Donald Trump signed an order directing officials to end transition care for federal prisoners with gender dysphoria. The Trump administration must continue providing transition… -
Supreme Court recusals stop music case in its tracks, strike warning noteSomething unusual happened at the Supreme Court this week: so many justices stepped aside from a case about music copyrights that the court could not hear it. Major publishing companies and lobbying groups for movies and the recording… -
Supreme Court hands Trump a rare loss on transgender prison care policyThe Supreme Court on Wednesday blocked President Donald Trump from suspending hormone therapy and other treatments for transgender Americans in federal prisons, a rare win for transgender rights at the conservative high court. The court… -
Supreme Court declines to let Trump end transgender surgeries for prison inmatesWashington Examiner The Supreme Court handed the Trump administration a loss on its emergency docket on Wednesday, declining to lift a lower court’s block on a new regulation for federal prisons that would stop providing inmates with… -
Supreme Court blocks Trump’s effort to restrict transgender treatment for prison inmatesWASHINGTON — The Supreme Court rebuffed the Trump administration’s emergency petition to immediately revive its restrictions on transgender treatment for inmates in federal prisons on Wednesday. President Trump’s team had requested the… -
Supreme Court blocks Trump admin’s limits on transgender care for prisonersThe justices turned down an emergency request to lift an order restoring Biden-era medical and housing policies for transgender inmates. 10/21/2026 12:47 PM EDT The Supreme Court dealt a setback Wednesday to President Donald Trump’s… -
Sam Wood takes bid for bail over domestic violence charges to supreme courtFormer reality star and wellness influencer stands accused of choking and assaulting wife at Noosa in Queensland Former reality television star Sam Wood will go to the Queensland supreme court seeking release from custody, more than two… -
Elena Kagan says Supreme Court's recent decisions have hurt democracyWashington Examiner is a news organization based in Washington, D.C., covering Congress, the White House, national security, the courts and elections, with breaking news, investigative reporting and conservative analysis. It publishes a… -
Supreme Court rejects Trump bid to restrict some medical treatments for transgender inmatesUpdated on: October 21, 2026 / 11:35 AM EDT / CBS News Washington — The Supreme Court on Wednesday left intact a lower court decision that blocked the Trump administration from enforcing a new Bureau of Prisons policy that would end… -
Trump officials ask Supreme Court to let border security project resume in national parkBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. The move comes after…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.