Will SCOTUS reject a benchmark requirement for ERISA fund-underperformance claims? (Before Aug 1, 2028)
13%chance
Install
Will SCOTUS allow religious chilling-effect claims without a final land-use decision? (Before Aug 1, 2028)
The odds
88%chance
How the odds have moved
Yes: 89% on Oct 19, 88% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 88% | 83¢ | 93¢ | $1.08 | 831 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Supreme Court, SCOTUS
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Supreme Court of the United States news - Today’s latest updatesThe Supreme Court cleared the way Thursday for New Hampshire to fully ban the use of student IDs for voting during the midterm elections. The Supreme Court has rejected an effort from the Trump administration to restrict some medical… -
Kamala Harris: We can’t count on the Supreme CourtFox News contributor Marc Thiessen discusses former Vice President Kamala Harris’ comments about the Supreme Court on ‘Fox & Friends.’ ... Kamala Harris: We can’t count on the Supreme Court Fox News contributor Marc Thiessen discusses… -
US supreme court sides with Republicans on rejecting student IDs in New Hampshire midtermsVoting rights advocates say directive would disenfranchise young and low-income voters, but Republicans say it’s needed to combat voter fraud The US supreme court has cleared the way for New Hampshire to prohibit student IDs as a form of… -
Home distillers rejoice as US Supreme Court considers whether to finally legalise moonshineGeno Stecks, 66, of Wyoming, began making homemade moonshine two years ago Wyoming mechanic and amateur moonshiner Geno Stecks proudly details the modifications he's made at his two-bedroom home to facilitate his hobby of distilling liquor… -
Supreme Court blocks use of student IDs as voter identification in New HampshireFirst Assistant U.S. Attorney Bill Essayli examines the growing dispute over voter eligibility verification in California. Los Angeles County election officials acknowledge they lack the resources to verify the citizenship status of… -
Jackson again publicly breaks with Supreme Court as justices side with GOP in last-minute voter ID fightFirst Assistant U.S. Attorney Bill Essayli examines the growing dispute over voter eligibility verification in California. Los Angeles County election officials acknowledge they lack the resources to verify the citizenship status of… -
Trump administration asks Supreme Court to resume Big Bend border wallCBS News Texas is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KTVT and channel 11, CBS News Texas offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Trump administration asks… -
Supreme Court rules New Hampshire can ban use of student IDs for midterm votersOctober 22, 2026 / 7:53 PM EDT / CBS/AP The Supreme Court cleared the way Thursday for New Hampshire to fully ban the use of student IDs for voting during the midterm elections. The justices granted a Republican-backed emergency appeal and… -
Supreme Court says New Hampshire can limit use of student IDs for votingThe Supreme Court on Thursday allowed New Hampshire officials to limit when voters may use a student ID to receive a ballot, agreeing that a lower court ruling that blocked enforcement of the policy was too close to Election Day. The… -
Supreme Court justice turns on her own court with dire warning about American democracyAmericans interviewed on Capitol Hill were split over whether the Supreme Court of the United States should expand as Congress introduces proposals to make reforms to its current size. (Nicholas Ballasy for Fox News Digital) Supreme Court… -
Supreme Court Justice Kagan warns some conservative rulings have been 'destructive of our democracy'Supreme Court Justice Elena Kagan suggested Tuesday that some recent decisions by her conservative colleagues have undermined democracy, while admitting at times they had also pushed back against the Trump administration. Kagan took part… -
Supreme Court says New Hampshire student IDs can’t be used to vote in NovemberWASHINGTON — In a win for Republicans, the Supreme Court on Thursday said that student IDs cannot be used in New Hampshire for the midterm elections. The justices granted an emergency request filed by the state, which had the backing of…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.