Which party will win the U.S. House? (2026)
91%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party91%
- Republican Party10%
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Reddest House district to elect a Democrat in 2026?
The odds
20median
035
Median 20Middle half 17.3 – 23.2
How the odds have moved
Median: 21.2 on Oct 19, 20 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump +5 or more | 99% | 98¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 3.1K | |
| Trump +10 or more | 98% | 97¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | 8.3K | |
| Trump +15 or more | 97% | 95¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | 10.2K | |
| Trump +20 or more | 50% | ▲ 2 | 49¢ | 51¢ | $1.96 | 7.4K |
| Trump +25 or more | 11% | 10¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 12.0K | |
| Trump +30 or more | 7% | ▲ 1 | 6¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | 23.9K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Reddest House, Democrat
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Exclusive / Democrats see Trump ‘rescue mission’ in MississippiBoth parties remain skeptical that Democrats can win Mississippi’s Senate race, but there are signs it’s competitive. Some Democrats are trying to temper soaring expectations in the battle for the Senate â but they also canât help but… -
Electric vehicle tax credits losing their luster for DemocratsPresident Donald Trump’s attacks on Biden-era electric vehicle policy is hampering Democrats’ ambitions to bring back buyer incentives. Sen. John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.) says Democrats need to weigh the future of EV tax credits. | Francis… -
Obama campaigns for Democrats, and France demonstrations continue: Weekend RundownFormer President Barack Obama, appearing in Ohio on Saturday at his first campaign rally of this fall’s midterm elections, called President Donald Trump an agent of “chaos and cruelty” and a man of broken promises. Obama’s visit was aimed… -
Trump Claims Ilhan Omar’s Seat ‘Conceded’ By DemocratsOct 25, 2026 at 01:04 PM EDT U.S. President Donald Trump declared Representative Ilhan Omar’s seat “conceded” by Democrats over federal court filings referring to her as Ilhan Nur Said Elmi, a name Omar has denied is hers. Prosecutors… -
Discontent with Trump buoys Democrats in Ohio: ‘People are disgusted by the corruption’In a reliably red state, candidates say dissatisfied voters tell them they’re planning to vote Democrat for the first time Democrat Kim McCarthy is canvassing in a middle-class Ohio neighborhood of four-bedroom, three-bathroom homes. There… -
If Democrats win big, will they learn the right lessons from their victory?No election outcome ever interprets itself. So how will Democrats interpret these results once they are known? Whichever metaphor one prefers – landslide, earthquake, wave – it seems increasingly like the Democrats can expect a significant… -
CBS News Battleground Tracker favors Democrats but turnout questions remainWith the midterm elections less than 10 days away, CBS News executive director of elections and surveys Anthony Salvanto dives into the latest Battleground Tracker, which favors Democrats but he says "turnout is a big factor." New CBS News… -
Democrats scheme to turn the US into France — riots and all“This is what happens when nations let wealth and power accumulate in the hands of a few,” says prospective 2028 presidential candidate Rep. Ro Khanna about the mass rioting and social unrest unfolding in France. As with most issues, the… -
Jeffries: Democrats "on the verge of taking back control" of the HouseCNN's Manu Raju hits the campaign trail in California with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who could be just months away from becoming the first Black speaker of the House of Representatives. While confident, Jeffries is also… -
Why Democrats see a path to victory in Mississippi midterm electionCNN National Political Writer Fredreka Schouten joins Fredricka Whitfield to break down why Democrat Scott Colom is hopeful that he can unseat incumbent Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith. Despite Donald Trump winning the state by 23… -
The Governor’s Race That 2028 Democrats Need to WatchNevada Attorney General Aaron Ford is making his biography and labor record central to his bid for governor. Will skeptical rank-and-file voters buy his pitch? Nevada Attorney General and gubernatorial candidate Aaron Ford speaks at a… -
Kamala Harris says Democrats have ‘been pissed’ for the last year and a halfFox News correspondent CB Cotton reports on former Vice President Kamala Harris’ comments while campaigning for New Hampshire Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Chris Pappas on ‘Fox Report.’ ... Kamala Harris says Democrats have ‘been pissed’…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions