Core PCE MoM - September 2026
0.31%median
-0.15%0.55%
Median 0.31%Middle half 0.27% – 0.35%
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Headline PCE inflation in September (September 2026)
The odds
0.45%median
-0.1%0.8%
Median 0.45%Middle half 0.41% – 0.49%
How the odds have moved
Median: 0.44% on Oct 20, 0.45% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0.0% | 99% | 98¢ | $1.01 | 4.7K | ||
| Above 0.1% | 98% | ▼ 1 | 95¢ | $1.02 | 3.3K | |
| Above 0.2% | 98% | 97¢ | $1.02 | 3.1K | ||
| Above 0.3% | 98% | 95¢ | $1.03 | 245 | ||
| Above 0.4% | 82% | ▲ 14 | 79¢ | 85¢ | $1.18 | 597 |
| Above 0.5% | 15% | ▼ 3 | 1¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | 931 |
| Above 0.6% | 4% | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | ||
| Above 0.7% | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 147 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: inflation, CPI, consumer prices
Search ›- Brazil consumer prices rise 0.32% in mid-OctoberSAO PAULO, Oct 23 (Reuters) - Brazil's IPCA-15 consumer price index rose 0.32% in the month to mid-October, down from 0.70% in the previous month, government statistics agency IBGE said on Friday. The index had been expected to…
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BREAKING NEWS: Japan's core consumer prices in Sept. rise 2.1% on yearRead full story here Japan agency cancels mistakenly issued M9.9 quake alert, transit disrupted Weather agency confirms year's 30th typhoon, 1st since 2013 Vulnerabilities found in widely used PHP programming language Newcomer Harasawa… - BREAKING NEWS: Japan's core consumer prices rise 2.0% or more for 1st time since Dec. 2025Read full story here Japan agency cancels mistakenly issued M9.9 quake alert, transit disrupted Weather agency confirms year's 30th typhoon, 1st since 2013 Vulnerabilities found in widely used PHP programming language Newcomer Harasawa…
- Morocco’s consumer prices rise in September, driven by food and fuelMorocco’s consumer price index rose 1% in September 2026 compared with August, driven by a 1.6% increase in food prices and a 0.4% rise in non-food prices, according to the High Commission for Planning (HCP). Meat and vegetable prices each…
- Japan National Consumer Price Index (YoY) climbed from previous 1.9% to 2.1% in SeptemberUSD/JPY rebounds from the 156.00 neighborhood, or a one-month low touched during Friday’s Asian session, with bulls looking to extend momentum beyond 157.00 amid the emergence of some US Dollar buying. Meanwhile, Japan's National CPI rose…
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Producer prices are up 6.3%. Consumer prices only 3.7%. This chart shows who eats the gap | FXStreetشبكة تواصل الإخبارية The Producer Price Index rose 6.3% in the year to September and the Consumer Price Index 3.7%, the widest gap since 2022. Inside the S&P 500, energy and technology companies collect the difference, the rest pay it, and… -
Morocco Inflation Jumps to 0.5% in SeptemberMorocco’s consumer prices rose 1.0% in September, lifting annual inflation to 0.5% after a 0.3% fall in August. The planning agency published the figures on Thursday, 22 October. Morocco inflation rose to 0.5% in September 2026, the High… -
Japanese Yen gathers strength as CPI inflation exceeds target, backing BoJ rate hikesThe USD/JPY pair remains under selling pressure to near 156.25 during the early Asian session on Friday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) following hot Japan’s inflation report. The preliminary reading of the… -
Inflation Is 3.7%, but This Hidden Cost of Living Is Up 115%Inflation is squeezing American households again, and the latest government figures suggest the pressure could spread well beyond what families are paying today. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported consumer prices rose 3.7% annually in… -
Island inflation rate rises to 3%, figures showThe annual rate of inflation in Jersey rose to 3% in September, according to new figures. Jersey's retail price index (RPI) rose 0.2 percentage points since June when it was 2.8%. Statistics Jersey said increases in the cost of household… - Morocco Consumer Prices Rise 1.0% in September 2026Morocco's consumer price index increased 1.0% in September 2026 compared with the previous month, according to the High Commission for Planning. The agency reported that the monthly gain reflected a 1.6% rise in the food index and a 0.4%…
Related markets
All inflation ›CPI in October (Oct 2026)
0.23%median
-0.2%1.1%
Median 0.23%Middle half 0.15% – 0.29%
US economic state at the end of 2026?
89%Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
- Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)89%▲ 12
- Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)9%▼ 7
- Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)1%
1 more
- Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)1%▼ 1
Argentina Monthly Inflation - October
1.77%median
1%3.3%
Median 1.77%Middle half 1.68% – 2%
October Inflation China - Annual
0.78%median
0.5%1.4%
Median 0.78%Middle half 0.71% – 0.94%
How high will inflation get in 2026?
14%Above 4.5%
4%12%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.