How much will core PCE increase in Oct 2026?
0.2%median
-0.1%0.5%
Median 0.2%Middle half 0.12% – 0.28%
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How much will core PCE increase in Sep 2026?
The odds
0.27%median
-0.1%0.7%
Median 0.27%Middle half 0.23% – 0.33%
How the odds have moved
Median: 0.19% on Sep 19, 0.27% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0.0% | 98% | 95¢ | $1.02 | 7.00 | ||
| Above 0.1% | 98% | 98¢ | $1.02 | 687 | ||
| Above 0.2% | 97% | ▲ 1 | 96¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | 2.7K |
| Above 0.3% | 34% | 32¢ | 35¢ | $2.86 | 2.3K | |
| Above 0.4% | 2% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 1.6K |
| Above 0.5% | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 545 | ||
| Above 0.6% | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 53.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: inflation, CPI, consumer prices
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No Diesel Relief Until 2027, Consumer Prices Spike, Says IEA ReportGlobal diesel supply is expected to stay tight well into next year, and consumer prices have already climbed thanks to record fuel costs at the pump, according to a recently published report by the International Energy Agency. “Constrained… - Consumer Price Growth Accelerates as Core Inflation Picks UpOur work is centered around four values that make our industry strong and America exceptional: free enterprise, competitiveness, individual liberty and equal opportunity. The men and women of the NAM’s Board of Directors are committed to…
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The Fed’s Beige Book is Mentioning Diesel a Lot More Than Before. What That Could Mean for Consumer Prices.Americans watching gasoline prices for signs of inflation may be underestimating the cost of the diesel used to fuel broader parts of the economy, including the transport of merchandise, operation of farm equipment, and delivery of… -
Hassett Says CPI Data Shows Inflation Needs ‘Some Work’(Bloomberg) -- White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said prices have been falling for items such as beef and eggs, though consumer price data for September shows overall inflation continues to need policy attention… -
Canada CPI expected to show a pick-up in inflation in SeptemberCanada’s September Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures will be the focus of attention on Monday. Indeed, Statistics Canada data will provide markets with an update on price pressures ahead of the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) October 28 gathering… -
Inflation, not a stock market crash, is the biggest threat to your retirementThe biggest threat to your retirement savings The Washington Post -
Markets Today: German Unemployment at 10 Year Highs, FTSE Slides on Head & Shoulders Breakout. US PCE Up Next29 August 2025 at 10:15 UTC Most Read: Sterling Outlook Softens amid Sticky Inflation, Slowing Growth and Fiscal Strains Asian stocks went up a little on Friday, following a good day for tech companies on Wall Street. Markets in Asia also… -
German producer prices hit highest since March 2023 as energy costs soar, fueling inflation worriesThe breakdownWell, this marks another solid jump in German producer prices with the annual rate climbing to 6.7% now in September. That marks the strongest year-on-year increase since March 2023, with rising energy prices continuing to be… -
Bank of Canada flags hotter inflation expectations as tariffs cloud outlookThe central bank reported that "overall business sentiment improved," with stronger third quarter sales views. Its outlook indicator ticked up to minus 0.33, while investment intentions eased but remained "robust." Most responses were… -
Bank of Japan may raise inflation forecast, stand pat on rates, sources sayBy Leika Kihara and Takahiko Wada Having just raised interest rates last month, the BOJ is expected to keep rates steady at the two-day policy meeting ending on October 30, unless the yen renews its slide that lifts import costs and… -
Canada September CPI 3.1% y/y vs 3.2% expectedThis is a good report from the Bank of Canada and should ease pressure on them to hike rates. At the same time, that's a negative for the Canadian dollar and we quickly saw USD/CAD rose to 1.4106 from 1.4075. For background, Statistics… -
New Zealand Dollar gains as traders await third-quarter inflation dataNZD/USD trades with a mild positive bias on Monday as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) benefits from improved risk sentiment. However, a rebound in US Treasury yields following last week’s pullback supports the US Dollar (USD), capping the…
Related markets
All inflation ›How much will core PCE increase in Nov 2026?
0.19%median
-0.1%0.5%
Median 0.19%Middle half 0.11% – 0.26%
Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026
2.12%median
1.5%4.4%
Median 2.12%Middle half 1.84% – 2.26%
CPI in October (Oct 2026)
0.23%median
-0.2%1.1%
Median 0.23%Middle half 0.14% – 0.3%
CPI YoY in November (Nov 2026)
3.89%median
2.9%5.1%
Median 3.89%Middle half 3.73% – 4.06%
How high will inflation get in 2026?
14%Above 4.5%
4%12%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.