When will Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket launch? (Before 2026)

Kalshi Tech › Space Closes Apr 1, 2027 · $255 today · $11.8K traded · $7.3K at stake · prices read 2 h ago

The odds

69%Before Mar 2027

Before Mar 202769%▲ 3
Before Apr 202769%▼ 8
Before Feb 202759%▲ 24
Before 20279%▲ 3
Before December3%
Before November1%

How the odds have moved

Before Mar 2027: 48% on Oct 20, 69% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

Oct 23, 9 PM ETBefore Mar 2027: 60% → 66%

No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Before Mar 2027	69%	▲ 3	42¢	69¢	$1.45	3.4K
Before Apr 2027	69%	▼ 8	66¢	72¢	$1.39	4.3K
Before Feb 2027	59%	▲ 24	36¢	56¢	$1.79	2.6K
Before 2027	9%	▲ 3	8¢	10¢	$10.00	40.5K
Before December	3%		1¢	4¢	$25.00	9.9K
Before September	1%				$100.00	25.4K
Before October	1%				$100.00	78.8K
Before November	1%			2¢	$50.00	2.3K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Blue Origin's New Glenn

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NASA lays out plan for Artemis 3 moon-lander test flight — but when will it launch?Space · 36 h agoThe agency just gave us a detailed look at the crucial docking test. But it's unclear exactly when it will take flight. NASA just gave us our best look yet at its Artemis III moon-lander test flight. The agency laid out a detailed concept…
NASA says Artemis program adjustments improve shot at 2028 moon landingCBS News · 35 h agoUpdated on: October 23, 2026 / 8:05 PM EDT / CBS News NASA is pressing ahead with Artemis moon program revisions to give the agency its best shot at a lunar landing in 2028 using a lander built by either Elon Musk's SpaceX or Jeff Bezos'…
Blue Planet III: Moment Octopus escapes deathBBC · 2 days agoFilmmakers have captured an octopus's lucky escape after venturing from her normal underwater habitat. The sequence is part of the latest Blue Planet series from Sir David Attenborough, who has continued to produce nature documentaries…
Artemis III On Track for Triple-Launch in 2027Space Foundation · 38 h agoWritten by: Jeff Gardner In less than a year, the Artemis III mission will test two landers to return humans to the lunar surface for the first time in more than 50 years. NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS), the same vehicle type that…
NASA lays out a packed 14-day schedule for 2027’s Artemis III moon missionScientific American · 38 h agoNASA lays out a packed 14-day schedule for Artemis III The mission, scheduled for the summer of 2027, will include be pivotal in deciding whether SpaceX or Blue Origin supplies the lunar lander for the first crewed trip to the lunar…
NASA Outlines the Details of Artemis III and IV MissionsPayload · 38 h agoNASA still wants to return US astronauts to the Moon in 2028. Today, officials shared a progress update on their efforts, as well as the finer details of the mission plans for Artemis III and IV, targeting flights in 2027 and 2028…
AST SpaceMobile's satellite fail risks D2D delays for MNOsLight Reading · 3 days agoAST SpaceMobile loses newest satellite after Blue Origin placed it in wrong orbit in a setback for nascent direct-to-device services. For the mobile operators that avoided Starlink Mobile and teamed with AST SpaceMobile for…
Pentagon blindsided as Musk's SpaceX disrupts military satellite program: reportRaw Story · 3 days agoSpaceX’s abrupt plan to retire its Falcon 9 rocket is jeopardizing the Pentagon’s ability to launch military satellites, Politico reported, leaving the Space Force in a launch "scramble." The company is phasing out its most popular rocket…
Viasat Launches Rocket Lab-Built Maxwell Satellite for NASA Communications Services Projectsatnews.com · 4 days agoOn Wednesday, October 21, 2026, satellite communications provider Viasat Inc. announced the successful orbital launch of the Maxwell spacecraft to advance its demonstration mission for NASA’s Communications Services Project (CSP). NASA…
Viasat Advances NASA Communications Services Project Demonstration with Successful LaunchStock Titan · 4 days agoSCHMID Group Reaches Agreement on Significant Equipment Order to Support HDI Capacity Expansion in Malaysia INVE Technologies Announces the Commencement of a $20 Million Modified Dutch Auction Tender Offer for its Common Stock Nexera…
Space Coast launch scheduleSun Sentinel · 12 days agoThe Space Coast ended 2025 with a record 109 launches from SpaceX, United Launch Alliance and Blue Origin. 2026 could see a similar number as all three ramp up plans plus NASA launches the Space Launch System rocket on Artemis II. 2026: 59…
Amazon Leo seeks satellite deployment extensionLight Reading · 13 days agoAmazon Leo said launch delays and other issues led it to ask the FCC for a 24-month extension to launch the first half of a planned constellation of 3,236 satellites. Citing launch delays, tough weather conditions, technical issues and the…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onBloomberg, Blue Origin, FAA

Trading closesApr 1, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$11.8K (167,098 contracts)

Today$255

This week$3.6K

At stake$7.3K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket has launched from the launch pad before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.