Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...?
31%December 31, 2027
- December 31, 20267%▲ 3
- June 30, 202718%▼ 6
- December 31, 202731%▼ 4
Install
Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? (Before 2031)
The odds
57%United States
- United States57%
- China31%
- Russia2%
- India1%
- European Space Agency1%
How the odds have moved
United States: 57% on Oct 20, 57% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 57% | 57¢ | 57¢ | $1.75 | 86.8K | |
| China | 31% | 31¢ | 31¢ | $3.26 | 50.5K | |
| Russia | 2% | 2¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 14.9K | |
| India | 1% | 1¢ | 1¢ | $76.92 | 18.5K | |
| European Space Agency | 1% | 1¢ | 1¢ | $76.92 | 14.8K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Moon
Search ›-
NASA announces plan for 2028 moon landingFormer NASA astronaut Barry 'Butch' Wilmore reacts to NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman announcing plans to send astronauts to the moon in 2028 on 'America Reports.' ... NASA announces plan for 2028 moon landing Former NASA astronaut Barry… -
NASA says Artemis program adjustments improve shot at 2028 moon landingUpdated on: October 23, 2026 / 8:05 PM EDT / CBS News NASA is pressing ahead with Artemis moon program revisions to give the agency its best shot at a lunar landing in 2028 using a lander built by either Elon Musk's SpaceX or Jeff Bezos'… -
The goal is to have 'long-duration stays' on the moon: NASA administratorNASA Administrator Jared Isaacman discusses NASA's latest announcements on plans to send astronauts to the moon in 2028 on 'The Will Cain Show.' ... The goal is to have 'long-duration stays' on the moon: NASA administrator NASA… -
WATCH LIVE: NASA details major push to return American astronauts to MoonNASA officials hold a news conference to provide an update on the agency's Artemis program and plans to return American astronauts to the surface of the Moon by 2028. WATCH LIVE: NASA details major push to return American astronauts to… -
October's full Hunter's Moon to light up night sky this weekendOctober's full Moon, nicknamed the Hunter's Moon, is set to light up the night sky this weekend. It will be visible in the UK from Sunday 25 October into the morning of Monday 26 October. Marking the 11th full Moon of 13 in 2026, it is the… -
NASA updates lander plans for Moon landings, finally solves long-festering Orion issue“We have the mandate, we have the resources, and the support from our stakeholders.” During a lengthy news conference NASA on Friday provided a detailed overview of how it plans to return astronauts to the lunar surface, as soon as 2028… -
NASA lays out plan for Artemis 3 moon-lander test flight — but when will it launch?The agency just gave us a detailed look at the crucial docking test. But it's unclear exactly when it will take flight. NASA just gave us our best look yet at its Artemis III moon-lander test flight. The agency laid out a detailed concept… -
Moon magic: Van Cleef & Arpels channels the cosmos for its new watchIt takes a certain kind of mystique to make the passage of time an otherworldly experience. Cue Van Cleef & Arpels, and its affinity for the cosmos, to dial said experience up with its latest celestial-themed offering, the Midnight Jour… -
Private Griffin moon lander gets put to the test | Space photo of the day for Oct. 23, 2026One big step closer to the moon. The robotic Griffin lunar lander has passed a host of critical tests ahead of its first-ever moon mission, which is scheduled to launch later this year. At NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in Southern… -
Latest estimate for Starship launches required to support a Moon landing? 22.“We need to keep our eyes on numerous required fuelings for the lander.” NASA does not have, nor want, nuclear weapons. But when it comes to a particular metric that is part of the Artemis Program to land people on the Moon, NASA guards a… -
NASA says Artemis III is on track for summer 2027, a two-week orbital test before a 2028 moon landinCBS News Chicago is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as WBBM-TV and CBS2, CBS News Chicago offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. NASA says Artemis III is… -
China is racing to the Moon, and America must clear the path for space innovationSilvia Inc. Chairman and CEO Anthony Pompliano discusses rumors of a potential merger between SpaceX and Tesla, Elon Musk's pledge to share stocks of his companies to American children and more on 'America's Newsroom.' Since the dawn of…
Related markets
All space ›Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?
May 26, 2027even chance by
- December 31, 202615%▼ 5
- January 31, 202718%▼ 11
- February 28, 202730%▼ 5
2 more
- June 30, 202759%▼ 1
- December 31, 202766%
How many launches will SpaceX have in October? (Oct 2026)
10.4median
517
Median 10.4Middle half 10.1 – 10.7
Elon Musk Net Worth on October 31?
$922.08Bmedian
$600B$1.3T
Median $922.08BMiddle half $844.73B – $974.21B
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?
76%November 30, 2026
- November 30, 202676%▲ 9
- Chopsticks catch Starship?69%▼ 1
- Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster?66%▼ 1
4 more
- Super Heavy booster explodes?44%▲ 5
- Successful splash down?25%
- November 15, 202620%▲ 10
- October 31, 20262%
Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist? (Before 2027)
23%Before Jan 20, 2029
- Before Jan 20, 202923%
- Before Jan 1, 202814%
- Before Jan 1, 20275%
2 more
- Before Dec 1, 20263%
- Before Nov 1, 20261%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.