Alabama's 1st District margin of victory
25.6median
1560
Median 25.6Middle half 20.3 – 30.7
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Mississippi's 2nd District margin of victory
The odds
31.1median
1242
Median 31.1Middle half 25.1 – 36.8
How the odds have moved
Median: 29 on Oct 19, 31.1 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thompson, 15+ pts | 93% | 91¢ | 94¢ | $1.06 | ||
| Thompson, 18+ pts | 91% | 88¢ | 94¢ | $1.06 | 55.00 | |
| Thompson, 21+ pts | 87% | 83¢ | 92¢ | $1.09 | 55.00 | |
| Thompson, 24+ pts | 79% | 75¢ | 83¢ | $1.20 | 1.3K | |
| Thompson, 27+ pts | 68% | 64¢ | 72¢ | $1.39 | 455 | |
| Thompson, 30+ pts | 55% | 51¢ | 59¢ | $1.69 | 55.00 | |
| Thompson, 33+ pts | 41% | 37¢ | 45¢ | $2.22 | 55.00 | |
| Thompson, 36+ pts | 28% | 24¢ | 32¢ | $3.13 | 55.00 | |
| Thompson, 39+ pts | 17% | 13¢ | 21¢ | $4.76 | 55.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Mississippi
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Why Democrats see a path to victory in Mississippi midterm electionCNN National Political Writer Fredreka Schouten joins Fredricka Whitfield to break down why Democrat Scott Colom is hopeful that he can unseat incumbent Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith. Despite Donald Trump winning the state by 23… - A Black Democrat has a chance to win in Mississippi’s Senate raceBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Scott Colom has a shot…
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President Trump to campaign for Sen. Hyde-Smith in MississippiPresident Donald Trump is heading to Mississippi for a rally soon. He'll campaign for United States Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith. The rally will be Oct. 26 ... President Trump to campaign for Sen. Hyde-Smith in Mississippi It looks like you're… -
Trump asked is he's 'worried' about Mississippi US Senate raceFox News Trump asked is he's 'worried' about Mississippi US Senate race President Donald Trump responds Thursday outside the White House when asked if he is concerned by the U.S. Senate race in Mississippi, where GOP incumbent Cindy… -
Republican group places seven-figure ad buy in MississippiThe top Senate Republican super PAC is spending more than $1 million in Mississippi’s Senate race to defend GOP Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith and stave off an upset bid from Democratic candidate Scott Colom, according to details shared with… -
Kamala Harris Stumps in Mississippi as GOP Moves to Protect Senate SeatOct 22, 2026 at 04:15 PM EDT Former Vice President Kamala Harris is campaigning in Mississippi on Thursday for Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Scott Colom, as Republicans face an unexpectedly competitive contest in a state President… -
Video shows moments before fatal police shooting of 1-year-old in MississippiNewly released bodycam video shows the moments before a Mississippi police officer fired his gun into a car in June, killing a 1-year-old boy sitting on his mother's lap. This week the state's attorney general concluded the officer who… -
WATCH LIVE: Kamala Harris joins Dem Senate nominee Scott Colom at Mississippi rallyFormer Vice President Kamala Harris joins Democratic nominee Scott Colom at a rally in Columbus, Mississippi, to energize voters with 12 days until the midterm elections. WATCH LIVE: Kamala Harris joins Dem Senate nominee Scott Colom at… -
Kamala Harris gets crickets from Mississippi rally crowd after butchering motivational quote: ‘Let me repeat that’Former Vice President Kamala Harris’ attempt to inspire voters at a Democratic rally in Mississippi fell flat Thursday after she was forced to repeat a confusing quote in a far-from-full high school gym. “You know, I mentor a lot of young… -
Democrats Aim for Deep-Red Mississippi Senate SeatABC News: “Why are major Democrats and Republicans flocking to Mississippi in recent weeks?” “In a climate where polls show President Donald Trump’s approval ratings cratering, Democrats are unusually optimistic about Scott Colom’s chances… - Kamala Harris rallies for Mississippi Senate candidate as she elevates profileBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. The former vice…
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Can Scott Colom Win in Mississippi’s Senate Race?Washington Post: “The formula for Colom to win is deceptively simple: He needs a huge turnout from Black voters and about a quarter of the White vote. Doesn’t sound that hard, yet no Democrat has solved the problem in Mississippi in more…
Related markets
All elections ›Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory
24%Figures, 2+ pts
-132
Alabama's 3rd District margin of victory
38.5median
2454
Median 38.5Middle half 32.7 – 43.4
Alabama's 4th District margin of victory
59.2median
4272
Median 59.2Middle half 54.3 – 63.5
Alabama's 5th District margin of victory
23.6median
737
Median 23.6Middle half 18.5 – 28.9
Alabama's 6th District margin of victory
26.1median
1548
Median 26.1Middle half 20.6 – 31.4
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions