Alabama's 1st District margin of victory
25.6median
1560
Median 25.6Middle half 20.3 – 30.7
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Louisiana's 4th District margin of victory
The odds
25.2median
660
Median 25.2Middle half 17.1 – 33
How the odds have moved
Median: 29.0 on Oct 20, 25.2 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republicans, 9+ pts | 92% | 87¢ | 97¢ | $1.04 | ||
| Republicans, 12+ pts | 87% | 82¢ | 91¢ | $1.09 | ||
| Republicans, 15+ pts | 80% | ▼ 1 | 75¢ | 84¢ | $1.19 | |
| Republicans, 18+ pts | 73% | ▼ 1 | 69¢ | 77¢ | $1.30 | 406 |
| Republicans, 21+ pts | 64% | ▼ 1 | 59¢ | 68¢ | $1.47 | |
| Republicans, 24+ pts | 54% | ▼ 1 | 49¢ | 58¢ | $1.72 | |
| Republicans, 27+ pts | 45% | ▼ 1 | 40¢ | 49¢ | $2.04 | |
| Republicans, 30+ pts | 35% | ▼ 1 | 30¢ | 39¢ | $2.56 | 15.00 |
| Republicans, 33+ pts | 25% | ▼ 1 | 21¢ | 29¢ | $3.45 | 1.2K |
| Republicans, 36+ pts | 19% | ▼ 1 | 14¢ | 23¢ | $4.35 | 126 |
| Republicans, 39+ pts | 12% | ▼ 1 | 8¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | 904 |
| Republicans, 42+ pts | 8% | ▼ 1 | 3¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | 823 |
| Republicans, 45+ pts | 6% | 2¢ | 10¢ | $10.20 | 3.5K | |
| Republicans, 48+ pts | 5% | 9¢ | $11.11 | 647 | ||
| Republicans, 51+ pts | 4% | 8¢ | $12.50 | 647 | ||
| Republicans, 54+ pts | 4% | 8¢ | $13.16 | |||
| Republicans, 57+ pts | 4% | 1¢ | 7¢ | $13.51 | 1.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Louisiana
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How Thomas Jefferson politicked his way into the Louisiana PurchaseThe Louisiana Purchase was the biggest territorial expansion in American history. A new book, "Jefferson's Landmark Deal," examines the unique role President Thomas Jefferson played in that monumental acquisition. Author and public scholar… -
ANF | Acadiana News First | Louisiana News, Sports, WeatherSaints’ kicker Carlson especially eager for Sunday’s game in Paris, and to get back home FNL: 2026 Acadiana Area High School Football Scores - Week 8 Arrest made in Atchafalaya Basin Bridge crash as search for missing Texas woman continues… -
Over 363,000 ballots cast in Louisiana ahead of Nov. 3 electionBATON ROUGE, La. (Louisiana First) -- Voter turnout remains strong across Louisiana ahead of the November 3 election. The U.S. Senate race tops the ballot, while voters also weigh in on delayed congressional contests and 10 proposed… -
This Louisiana election is unusual, some observers say. Here’s why.A poster of the "I Voted" sticker by Terrance Osborne was on display during early voting for the Nov. 3 ballot. WASHINGTON – Baton Rouge pollster John Couvillon turned on his TV after Labor Day expecting — and like most political junkies… -
DRLA launches voting hotline to assist Louisiana votersLOUISIANA (KTAL/KMSS) — Disability Rights Louisiana (DRLA) is encouraging voters across the state to contact its voting hotline if they experience accessibility barriers or issues during early voting or on Election Day. Early voting began… -
Election 2026: What is Louisiana’s Amendment 8?Election 2026: What is Louisiana's Amendment 8? - The Black Chronicle (The Center Square) – Louisiana voters will decide Nov. 3 whether to prohibit private entities classified as foreign adversaries or their agents from using eminent… -
Ron Faucheux: For Louisiana governors, two terms and you’re out?In this election, Louisiana voters will decide whether to change the state's constitutional term limits for governors. It's an important decision. Currently, Louisiana governors can serve two consecutive terms, then run again after sitting… -
Arkansas, Louisiana, Alabama file lawsuits over states that shield providers of mail-order abortion pillsTwo lawsuits filed last month by Arkansas, Louisiana and Alabama represent a new front in the ongoing fight over abortion in the post-Roe era, pitting red states with strict abortion bans against blue states that seek to protect healthcare… - Early voting data shows surge in Black turnout across LouisianaBATON ROUGE — The secretary of state's office says more than 95,000 African Americans have cast ballots this week in Louisiana during the midterm early voting period. During early voting for the 2022 midterm election, Black voters cast…
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Trump’s moves on Russia, diesel get cautious response from some in Louisiana delegationWASHINGTON – Some members of Louisiana’s congressional delegation have raised concerns about President Donald Trump’s recent order lifting some sanctions against Russia in order free up more diesel fuel on the world market and thereby… -
Why 150K inactive Louisiana voter registrations could be canceled — and why the number grewEarly voting takes place on Tuesday, October 20, 2026, at the Louisiana State Archives building in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. Louisiana could cancel roughly 150,000 inactive voter registrations if those residents don’t cast ballots in the… -
Black voter turnout surges in Louisiana early voting(The Center Square) — Black voters are turning out at rates rarely seen in Louisiana's recent election history, accounting for nearly one-third of early ballots cast ahead of the Nov. 3 election, according to state election data. Through…
Related markets
All elections ›Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory
24%Figures, 2+ pts
-132
Alabama's 3rd District margin of victory
38.5median
2454
Median 38.5Middle half 32.7 – 43.4
Alabama's 4th District margin of victory
59.2median
4272
Median 59.2Middle half 54.3 – 63.5
Alabama's 5th District margin of victory
23.6median
737
Median 23.6Middle half 18.5 – 28.9
Alabama's 6th District margin of victory
26.1median
1548
Median 26.1Middle half 20.6 – 31.4
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions