Alabama's 1st District margin of victory
25.6median
1560
Median 25.6Middle half 20.3 – 30.7
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Florida's 1st District margin of victory
The odds
27.0median
844
Median 27.0Middle half 21.6 – 32.1
How the odds have moved
Median: 29.9 on Oct 20, 27.0 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patronis, 11+ pts | 96% | 93¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | ||
| Patronis, 14+ pts | 95% | 91¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | ||
| Patronis, 17+ pts | 91% | 86¢ | 96¢ | $1.05 | 700 | |
| Patronis, 20+ pts | 82% | ▼ 1 | 77¢ | 86¢ | $1.16 | 1.3K |
| Patronis, 23+ pts | 70% | 65¢ | 74¢ | $1.35 | 1.3K | |
| Patronis, 26+ pts | 56% | 51¢ | 60¢ | $1.67 | 205 | |
| Patronis, 29+ pts | 40% | ▼ 1 | 35¢ | 44¢ | $2.27 | 15.00 |
| Patronis, 32+ pts | 26% | ▼ 1 | 21¢ | 30¢ | $3.33 | 240 |
| Patronis, 35+ pts | 14% | ▼ 1 | 9¢ | 18¢ | $5.56 | 269 |
| Patronis, 38+ pts | 6% | ▼ 1 | 2¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | |
| Patronis, 41+ pts | 4% | 8¢ | $13.16 | 200 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Florida
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Florida’s new TrumpThe unofficial guide to official Washington, every morning and weekday afternoons. By DASHA BURNS, WILL STEAKIN and ADAM WREN 10/23/2026 06:05 AM EDT With help from Eli Okun, Ali Bianco and Irie Sentner Happy Friday. As Election Day bears… -
Trump casts his midterm ballot early in FloridaWEST PALM BEACH, Fla. — President Donald Trump cast his ballot in the midterm elections Saturday, saying he voted for all Republicans in Florida before speaking at a Georgia rally. Trump and first lady Melania Trump arrived at their West… -
Orthodox Jews flee NY for Florida amid rising antisemitismMore than 100 Orthodox Jewish families, fed up with rising antisemitism and political dysfunction in New York, are planning to join the 60 who already fled the state for a new community in Florida — only for far-right influencers to… -
How social media clips can impact local elections in South FloridaIn the era of social media, short clips posted online these can often spark conversations and debates ahead of elections. With the midterms just days away, we asked South Floridians their thoughts on how clips on social media impacts… -
Effort to stop TV stations from running Hope Florida ad blockedOctober 25, 2026 / 8:57 AM EDT / CBS Miami Attorney General James Uthmeier, the Republican Party of Florida and at least two state attorneys, threatened legal action – and possible criminal prosecution – if TV stations ran ads about the… -
Trump casts his midterm election ballot early in FloridaPresident Donald Trump cast his ballot in the midterm elections Saturday, saying he voted for all Republicans in Florida before speaking at a Georgia rally. Trump and first lady Melania Trump arrived together at their West Palm Beach… -
South Florida voters hit polls on first Saturday of early votingCBS News Miami is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as WFOR-TV and channel 4, CBS News Miami offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. South Florida voters hit… -
Florida attorney general pushes for fetal personhood and an end to all abortions in stateOctober 25, 2026 / 9:07 AM EDT / CBS Miami In a video podcast with an anti-abortion activist released earlier this month, Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier boasted that he would "use every tool in his office" to eliminate abortion… -
Larger turnout expected on weekends for early voting in South FloridaOctober 24, 2026 / 3:31 PM EDT / CBS Miami Jorge Jaen came to beat the lines at the polls at a Miami-Dade Elections headquarters. He had a polling place closer to his house in Kendall. "I was in the area. So it makes sense," Jaen said. He… -
Venezuelans in South Florida weigh Maria Corina Machado's return and what comes next for the countryOctober 25, 2026 / 8:11 PM EDT / CBS Miami Patrons at a Venezuelan restaurant in South Florida gathered Sunday to discuss news of opposition leader Maria Corina Machado's return to Venezuela, weighing questions about the country's future… -
Rep Jim Jordan commends ‘common sense conservative’ running in tight Florida districtGOP congressional candidate Mike Beltran and Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, discuss Republican momentum in Florida’s 14th district on ‘Fox Report.’ ... Rep Jim Jordan commends ‘common sense conservative’ running in tight Florida district GOP… -
President says 'everything is good' as he casts early vote in FloridaPresident Donald Trump addressed reporters while entering the Palm Beach County Supervisor of Elections office with first lady Melania Trump on Saturday to vote. President says 'everything is good' as he casts early vote in Florida…
Related markets
All elections ›Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory
24%Figures, 2+ pts
-132
Alabama's 3rd District margin of victory
38.5median
2454
Median 38.5Middle half 32.7 – 43.4
Alabama's 4th District margin of victory
59.2median
4272
Median 59.2Middle half 54.3 – 63.5
Alabama's 5th District margin of victory
23.6median
737
Median 23.6Middle half 18.5 – 28.9
Alabama's 6th District margin of victory
26.1median
1548
Median 26.1Middle half 20.6 – 31.4
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions