Alabama's 1st District margin of victory
25.6median
1560
Median 25.6Middle half 20.3 – 30.8
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Arizona's 5th District margin of victory
The odds
12.2median
-129
Median 12.2Middle half 6.20 – 18.1
How the odds have moved
Median: 10.5 on Oct 19, 12.2 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamb, 2+ pts | 87% | 84¢ | 90¢ | $1.11 | 275 | |
| Lamb, 5+ pts | 80% | 76¢ | 84¢ | $1.19 | 5.00 | |
| Lamb, 8+ pts | 68% | ▼ 1 | 63¢ | 72¢ | $1.39 | 36.00 |
| Lamb, 11+ pts | 56% | 51¢ | 60¢ | $1.67 | 10.00 | |
| Lamb, 14+ pts | 42% | 37¢ | 46¢ | $2.17 | 205 | |
| Lamb, 17+ pts | 29% | ▼ 1 | 25¢ | 33¢ | $3.03 | 241 |
| Lamb, 20+ pts | 18% | 13¢ | 23¢ | $4.35 | 144 | |
| Lamb, 23+ pts | 10% | ▼ 1 | 5¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 1.7K |
| Lamb, 26+ pts | 5% | 0¢ | 10¢ | $10.20 | 832 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Arizona
Search ›- ‘We don’t need 50 more data centers.’ Arizona AG declares war on AI.Attorney General Kris Mayes has broken with other Democratic leaders who say the AI hubs help drive the state's high-tech aspirations. 10/26/2026 5:00 AM EDT Arizona leaders want the state to be a high-tech hub for making semiconductors…
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Katie Hobbs Leads for Arizona GovernorA new Red Box Research (D) poll in Arizona finds Katie Hobbs (D) leading Andy Biggs (R) in the governor’s race, 47% to 42%. Arizona Governor’s Race Katie Hobbs (D) 47% Andy Biggs (R) 42% Red Box Research poll · likely voters · ±3.7% A new… -
McMahon Touts Arizona State as Example for NationIn addition to praising ASU, the secretary denounced colleges that “put their own corporate interests first” and boasted of the success of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. McMahon praised Arizona State in a speech last week. Education… -
Arizona judicial retention efforts take on partisan tingePartisan voter guides from all sides of the political spectrum are airing long lists of judges allegedly unfit to keep on the court. But those campaigns to remove sitting judges are gambling on the outcome of the governor's race this… -
Turning Point app reveals Arizona neighbors’ voter dataPHOENIX — Want to know what a conservative political group thinks of the leanings of your neighbors? Well, there's an app for that. And it's publicly available. It's called the TPAction mobile app. Designed by crafted by Turning Point USA… -
How Warren Petersen, Kris Mayes woo Arizona's Latino votersA boisterous crowd of more than 1,000 people packed the plaza of the Arizona Capitol on a hot night in mid-September to celebrate the 216th anniversary of the Grito de Independencia de México, the cry for Mexico's independence. Warren… -
Interior secretary warns Arizona over Colorado River lawsuitPHOENIX — Arizona's historic legal fight over Colorado River water is drawing a warning from one of the Trump administration's top officials, even as an Arizona congressman defends the state's decision to take the federal government to… -
Charlie Kirk’s Arizona Dream Risks Unraveling Under Erika’s LeadershipTurning Point USA has made Arizona the proving ground for Charlie Kirk’s political legacy, but defeating Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs is proving difficult. His widow, Erika, has committed the organization to the fight, backed by… -
Arizona accommodated gaming megadonor while cracking down on its rivalsArizona’s top Democrats have delayed for two years in enforcing legal action against an online gaming giant that has supported them politically. But regulators acted swiftly to crack down on the company’s rivals. Gov. Katie Hobbs and… - How Trump is trying to save his longtime golf buddy in battleground ArizonaThe pro-Trump cavalry has arrived for Republican Jay Feely, who is in a tight House race against Democrat Amish Shah. GOP House candidate Jay Feely of Arizona speaks during the Republican National Convention in Dallas on Sept. 9, 2026. |…
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Why Arizona Loses Its Colorado River Water Before California DoesThe 1968 deal only makes sense alongside what came before it, which was one of the longest legal fights in American history. Arizona sued California in 1952 over Colorado River allocations. Arizona v. California ran eleven years and cost… -
Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes makes his case for a second term, defends mail votingPHOENIX — Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes is defending the state's mail-in voting system as he campaigns for a second term against Republican challenger Alex Kolodin, who sponsored a ballot measure that would require voters to…
Related markets
All elections ›Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory
24%Figures, 2+ pts
-132
Alabama's 3rd District margin of victory
38.6median
2454
Median 38.6Middle half 32.7 – 43.5
Alabama's 4th District margin of victory
59.3median
4272
Median 59.3Middle half 54.3 – 63.6
Alabama's 5th District margin of victory
23.6median
737
Median 23.6Middle half 18.5 – 29
Alabama's 6th District margin of victory
26.2median
1548
Median 26.2Middle half 20.6 – 31.5
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions