Settled3,640,000,000A day before, traders had a median of 68,491
The last odds before it closed
1%Above 67 thousand
✓ Above 67 thousand1%▼ 40
✓ Above 68 thousand1%▼ 28
✓ Above 69 thousand1%▼ 33
✓ Above 70 thousand1%▼ 27
✓ Above 71 thousand1%▼ 19
✓ Above 72 thousand1%▼ 14
✓ Above 73 thousand1%▼ 13
✓ Above 74 thousand1%▼ 13
✓ Above 75 thousand1%▼ 9
✓ Above 76 thousand1%▼ 6
✓ Above 77 thousand1%▼ 3
How the odds have moved
Above 67 thousand: 40% on Oct 20, 1% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Why it moved
Oct 21, 4 PM ETAbove 67 thousand: 82% → 1%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
Outcome
Last odds
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Contracts
✓ Above 67 thousand
1%
2.8K
✓ Above 68 thousand
1%
3.2K
✓ Above 69 thousand
1%
1.9K
✓ Above 70 thousand
1%
1.4K
✓ Above 71 thousand
1%
842
✓ Above 72 thousand
1%
468
✓ Above 73 thousand
1%
158
✓ Above 74 thousand
1%
302
✓ Above 75 thousand
1%
78.00
✓ Above 76 thousand
1%
13.00
✓ Above 77 thousand
1%
3.9K
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.