Where will it rain on Oct 25, 2026?
26%New York City
00
Install
Lake Mead end-of-month water elevation in Dec 2026?
The odds
1,035median
1,0321,041
Median 1,035
How the odds have moved
Median: 1,035 on Oct 20, 1,035 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1033 Ft | 65% | ▼ 1 | 63¢ | 67¢ | $1.49 | 1.3K |
| Above 1034 Ft | 57% | ▼ 1 | 55¢ | 60¢ | $1.67 | 496 |
| Above 1035 Ft | 47% | ▼ 3 | 46¢ | 47¢ | $2.13 | 1.2K |
| Above 1036 Ft | 31% | ▼ 1 | 30¢ | 32¢ | $3.13 | 2.2K |
| Above 1037 Ft | 27% | ▲ 5 | 23¢ | 30¢ | $3.33 | 2.5K |
| Above 1038 Ft | 16% | ▼ 2 | 15¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | 1.6K |
| Above 1039 Ft | 14% | ▼ 1 | 13¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 11.5K |
| Above 1040 Ft | 4% | ▼ 1 | 2¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | 6.0K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Lake Mead
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What Happens To Phoenix If Lake Mead Hits Dead PoolIf Lake Mead hits dead pool, Phoenix loses its Colorado River water, but the taps won’t run dry. Why the Salt and Verde rivers and banked groundwater save the city. If Lake Mead ever hit "dead pool," the doomsday point where its water… -
What Happens To The Imperial Valley If Lake Mead Hits Dead PoolGeography is doing all the work here, and it runs against the legal position entirely. Imperial Valley water leaves the river at Imperial Dam, about 20 miles north of Yuma, Arizona, and travels west along the All-American Canal. Imperial… -
Lake Mead Lost 192 Feet, Lake Powell Lost 179Reservoir elevations change daily, so any comparison needs a date attached to be worth anything. In the week to October 18, 2026, Reclamation recorded Lake Mead at 1,037.24 feet holding about 6.79 million acre-feet, or 26 percent of… -
Hoover Dam may replace three turbines to keep generating power as Lake Mead drops toward 950 feetThe Hoover Dam is crucial for clean, reliable power, but now it requires vital upgrades. Across the United States, hydropower has played a significant role in shaping the economy and driving the green transition. But the nation has been… -
The US Reservoirs Holding The Least Water Right NowAfter a record-hot spring and a thin snowpack, some of the biggest US reservoirs sit near 5% full. See the 15 emptiest, plus Lake Mead’s new all-time low. Nearly every large American reservoir running close to empty this fall lies in the… -
Satellites tracked a loss of about 4.6 trillion gallons of groundwater in the snow-fed Upper Colorado River Basin during the 2020-2022 drought, and that is nearly double what the drier Lower Basin lostHome - Environment - Satellites tracked a loss of about 4.6 trillion gallons of groundwater in the snow-fed Upper Colorado River Basin during the 2020-2022 drought, and that is nearly double what the drier Lower Basin lost The snow-fed… - What Happens If Lake Mead Refills Faster Than Anyone ExpectsWorldAtlas For years now, every Lake Mead headline has read like a disaster movie: record lows, looming dead pool, a once-mighty river running dry. So let's flip the script for a change. What if Lake Mead did the exact opposite and…
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As Water Crisis Continues, Backup Water Supply in The Colorado River Basin Is Also Drying UpThe Southwestern US is in an ongoing megadrought that began in 2000, largely driven by overconsumption of water and climate change. Water scarcity in the region is immediately visible in the Colorado River and the reservoirs of Lake Mead… -
Pedestrian injured in south Las Vegas crash dies after fall during recovery, police sayLAS VEGAS (FOX5) — A woman has died more than a month after being hit by a vehicle in south Las Vegas. The incident occurred just after 5 p.m. on Friday, August 14 near Pebble Road and Maryland Parkway. According to police, a 2011 Toyota… -
Some drivers ignore pedestrians in Henderson crosswalk, including person with baby strollerLAS VEGAS (FOX5) — Video captured a person with a baby stroller trying to cross a Henderson street, while three cars drove through the crosswalk without stopping. The crosswalk is located on Water Street, near where drivers turn from Lake… - I-15 Crash Near St. George Pins Car Under SemitruckA car became pinned underneath a semitruck on northbound I-15 near the Virgin River in St. George on Monday evening, shutting down lanes and snarling traffic as crews worked a heavy rescue to free those trapped inside. The crash happened…
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A 502-foot concrete dam on the Green River is letting up to a million acre-feet out of its reservoir to keep Lake Powell above the line where its eight turbines shut down, the lake behind it has dropped 34 feet, and the water keeps flowing for six more monthsOct 22, at 6:30am ET Most people only know Flaming Gorge if they fish. It’s a 91-mile reservoir on the Green River that straddles the Utah-Wyoming line, it’s where someone pulled a 51-pound lake trout out of the water, and it’s about as…
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Where will it rain this weekend (Oct 24 - Oct 25)? (Oct 24 – Oct 25, 2026)
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47%3
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9%Magnitude of at least 6.6
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How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 19 - October 25?
96%more than 13
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.