Which party will win the U.S. House? (2026)
90%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party90%
- Republican Party10%
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How many House Democrats will lose reelection in 2026?
The odds
12.7median
819
Median 12.7Middle half 11.2 – 14.5
How the odds have moved
Median: 12.7 on Oct 19, 12.7 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 or more | 97% | 94¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | ||
| 10 or more | 92% | ▲ 3 | 88¢ | 95¢ | $1.05 | 72.00 |
| 11 or more | 78% | 76¢ | 79¢ | $1.27 | ||
| 12 or more | 63% | 58¢ | 67¢ | $1.49 | 9.00 | |
| 13 or more | 46% | 41¢ | 50¢ | $2.00 | 30.00 | |
| 14 or more | 31% | 26¢ | 35¢ | $2.86 | 17.00 | |
| 15 or more | 19% | 14¢ | 23¢ | $4.35 | 20.00 | |
| 16 or more | 12% | 7¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | 6.00 | |
| 17 or more | 7% | 3¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | ||
| 18 or more | 5% | 2¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: House Democrats
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House Democrats Want Answers on StubHub CEO’s Ticket Broker Firm: “Conflict of Interest and Potential Grift”"Eric Baker appears to be using his positions at Andro Capital and StubHub to profit, potentially at the expense of customers, fans, and artists," said Robert Garcia, ranking member of the Committee on Oversight and Government Reform… -
House Democrats Press StubHub CEO for Answers Over Ticket Resale Fund: ‘Potential Grift’The ranking member of the House Oversight Committee sent a new demand for answers about Eric Baker's firm Andro Capital. Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives are continuing to probe StubHub CEO Eric Baker about ties between the… -
House Democrats Target Hegseth for ImpeachmentJust dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 192 “House Democrats are setting their political sights on Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, pushing for his removal as the first spoils from anticipated wins in the midterm election,” the Wall Street… -
House Democrats Make Hegseth Their First Impeachment Target, Vote Expected Next MonthHouse Democrats are rallying behind impeaching Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, with a floor vote likely next month while Republicans still control the chamber, The Wall Street Journal reported. Party leaders and candidates in competitive… -
House Democrats Sign Up 275 Staffers as Election ObserversRep. Joe Morelle (D–N.Y.) said 275 Democratic House staffers have signed up to serve as official election observers for the Nov. 3 midterms, a record for the party. Morelle, the top Democrat on the Committee on House Administration… -
House Democrat reportedly giving 'serious thought' to Fetterman primary challengeHUNT VALLEY, Md. (TNND) — Senator John Fetterman has irritated Democrats around the country as he breaks party ranks to support key Republican initiatives, back Israel's regional wars and bash his progressive colleagues to conservative… -
House Democrats Demand Answers from StubHub CEO Amid Concerns of Conflicts of Interest and Market ManipulationHome » Trending » House Democrats Demand Answers from StubHub CEO Amid Concerns of Conflicts of Interest and Market Manipulation StubHub CEO Eric Baker is currently under scrutiny from House Democrats regarding his dual roles as head of… -
Group of House Democrats Publish Policy Blueprint for Economic and Climate ResilienceEnvironment, Land & Resources Insights and commentary on environmental issues and developments impacting business across the world The project offers an early indication of the policy ideas and priorities Democratic legislators may advance… -
House Democrats Get a $25 Million Credit Line“House Democrats’ campaign arm signed off on a $25 million line of credit — among the largest it’s ever opened — early last week as the party stretches itself to take advantage of an increasingly favorable electoral environment,” the… -
House Democrats plan a first 100-days agenda if they sweep to power in midterm elections4:21 PM / Wednesday October 21, 2026 WASHINGTON — House Democrats are preparing an ambitious 100-days agenda focused on delivering their campaign promises — making life more affordable and conducting vast oversight of the Trump… -
CNN’s Tapper Calls Out House Democrats’ Missing Plan to LegislateBy Chad Gaba October 21, 2026 CNN host Jake Tapper put House Democrats on the spot Tuesday over an awkward omission in their midterm pitch: They have not offered voters a cohesive plan explaining how they would legislate if they capture… -
‘Good sign’: House Democrat touts Trump & GOP pulling out Ohio battleground raceNBC News ‘Good sign’: House Democrat touts Trump & GOP pulling out Ohio battleground race Kornacki: Poll shows shift among those who call themselves a MAGA vs. traditional Republican Justice Department sues California over alleged…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions