Will a Category 4 hurricane make landfall in Tampa before Dec 1, 2026?
2%chance
Install
Will a Category 3 hurricane make landfall in Tampa before Dec 1, 2026?
The odds
2%chance
How the odds have moved
Yes: 2% on Oct 19, 2% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 2.4K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: hurricane, tropical storm, Tampa
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Vance no longer a hurricane but as a tropical storm still threatens Mexico's Pacific coastMIAMI — A gradually weakening Tropical Storm Vance churned Sunday off Mexico's southwest Pacific coast but still threatened heavy rains and flash flooding in several western states of the country. Vance, a former Category 2 hurricane as of… -
Vance no longer a hurricane but still threatens Mexico’s Pacific coast as a tropical stormMIAMI — A gradually weakening Tropical Storm Vance churned Sunday off Mexico’s southwest Pacific coast but still threatened heavy rains and flash flooding in several western states of the country. Vance, a former Category 2 hurricane as of… -
Tropical storm Champi bringing heavy rain to western JapanTropical storm Champi is moving northeast over the East China Sea. Atmospheric conditions are very unstable in western and eastern Japan, as warm and damp air around the storm flows into a front stretching near the main island of Honshu… -
Tropical Storm Champi: Japan's Kyushu braces for landfall after storm sweeps past southwest regionJapan's Kyushu region is bracing for Tropical Storm Champi's landfall, as it sweeps past the nation's southwestern islands, leaving a trail of destruction. Authorities warn of more heavy rain, violent winds and storm surges, along with… - Tropical Storm Champi nears China after battering Taiwan, JapanA powerful storm swept towards China yesterday after battering Taiwan and Japan’s southernmost islands, knocking out power to thousands of households and forcing the cancellation of hundreds of ... Choose a section, type your search topic…
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Tropical Storm Champi nears mainland China after battering Taiwan, JapanA powerful storm swept towards mainland China on Saturday after battering Taiwan and Japan’s southernmost islands, knocking out power to thousands of households and forcing the cancellation of hundreds of flights. Typhoon Champi was… -
Tropical Storm In-Fa 'looking like a northern CNMI storm,' could become CAT 4 typhoonCurrently, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts In-Fa to possibly reach the northern Commonwealth of the Northern Marianas Islands by morning Oct. 30, 2026 as a Category 3 typhoon. In-Fa is located 280 miles northwest of Kwajalein… -
Post-tropical storm Josephine accelerating away from U.S. | NC flood, high wave impact continuesRough surf and high waves along the North Carolina Outer Banks will subside over the weekend as powerful Josephine races into the North Atlantic. The extratropical low that was Subtropical Storm Josephine will intensify during its current… - Tropical storm wreaks havoc on roads, property across Southwest ColoradoRed Mountain and Wolf Creek passes are closed, as is U.S. Highway 160 west of Pagosa Springs Friday, Oct 23, 2026 10:39 AM MT Updated Friday, Oct 23, 2026 12:43 PM MT Flooding in the Animas Valley near northern Durango city limits as of…
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Tropical Storm Vance could intensify into a major hurricane, while Champi threatens Taiwan and JapanTropical Storm Vance is expected to strengthen into the 13th hurricane in the Pacific Basin this season as it approaches Mexico next week. Vance could intensify into a major hurricane, which would be the basin's 10th Category 3 or stronger… - Tropical Storm Vance Expected To Become Major Hurricane Near Mexico700WLW Tropical Storm Vance is forecast to intensify rapidly and could become a major hurricane as it approaches the southwestern coast of Mexico next week. As of Thursday (October 22), Vance was located about 500 miles south of Acapulco…
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Los Cabos Will Keep Eye On Tropical Storm Vance As Hurricane Season Begins To Wind DownIf you are planning a trip to Los Cabos as the winter approaches, you might have thought you were completely in the clear when it comes to tropical weather. Traditionally, late October marks the point where the Pacific hurricane season…
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All hurricanes & storms ›Will a Category 5 hurricane make landfall in Tampa before Dec 1, 2026?
2%chance
Will a Category 3 hurricane make landfall in Tampa before 2027?
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Will a Category 5 hurricane make landfall in Tampa before 2027?
5%chance
Hurricane Vance category?
4%Category 4 or above
36
Atlantic Tropical Storms (Dec 2026)
10.1median
818
Median 10.1Middle half 9.35 – 11.4
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions