Which party will win the U.S. House? (2026)
91%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party91%▲ 1
- Republican Party10%
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2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional)
The odds
9.63%median
0%18%
Median 9.63%Middle half 8.06% – 11.48%
How the odds have moved
Median: 9.29% on Oct 20, 9.63% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats, ≥2% | 95% | ▼ 1 | 93¢ | 97¢ | $1.03 | 4.2K |
| Democrats, ≥4% | 94% | ▼ 1 | 90¢ | 97¢ | $1.03 | 2.0K |
| Democrats, ≥6% | 89% | 87¢ | 91¢ | $1.10 | 10.2K | |
| Democrats, ≥8% | 76% | ▲ 2 | 75¢ | 77¢ | $1.30 | 18.9K |
| Democrats, ≥10% | 44% | ▼ 4 | 42¢ | 46¢ | $2.17 | 20.8K |
| Democrats, ≥11% | 30% | ▼ 2 | 28¢ | 32¢ | $3.13 | 5.00 |
| Democrats, ≥12% | 20% | ▼ 4 | 19¢ | 20¢ | $5.00 | 3.4K |
| Democrats, ≥14% | 10% | ▲ 1 | 8¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 548 |
| Democrats, ≥16% | 6% | ▼ 1 | 4¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 736 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Midterms, House, Directional
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White House takes new actions ahead of midterm electionsNBC News Catastrophic flooding prompts rescues Good News: Unlikely friendship leads to trip of a lifetime White House takes new actions ahead of midterm elections All-out fight for critical battleground states ramps up Inside the battle… -
‘Brilliant James’ helped return Trump to the White House. Can he conquer the midterms?James Blair’s data-driven approach delivered victory in 2024 but president’s unpopularity and idiosyncratic style do not bode well this time They are both young, bald and fathers of four. They are also the brains behind Donald Trump. But… -
Vance front and center in Republican midterms push – is this a dry run for a White House bid?Vice-president’s visibility has risen as Trump’s popularity wanes, but path to inherit Maga throne is more complicated than it may seem A day after JD Vance suggested Donald Trump would endorse him if he runs for president, the… -
Mike Johnson asks Trump for more midterm money as Republicans seek to avert disaster in House racesIn the final sprint to the midterms, Speaker Mike Johnson went to President Donald Trump with a crucial ask, according to a person familiar with the exchange. Johnson’s message: Could Trump spare more cash to help House Republicans in this… -
Countdown on until 2026 midterm electionCBS News Chicago is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as WBBM-TV and CBS2, CBS News Chicago offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Countdown on until 2026… -
President Trump continues midterm election ralliesCBS News Colorado Weekend 5pm CBS News Detroit Weekend 6:30pm CBS News Miami 6:30pm CBS News New York Weekend 6:30pm CBS Philadelphia at 6:30pm KDKA News Weekends 6:30pm CBS News Texas 5:30pm -
House Democrats eye Hegseth impeachment if they win midtermsEstefano Gomez is an editor at Crypto Briefing specializing in blockchain analysis, DeFi, and the intersection of crypto and digital art. He previously served as Editor in Chief at Interesante for over three years, where he covered… -
Early voting surges as Trump launches midterm blitzHistorian Tom Del Beccaro analyzes the surge in early voting numbers across Texas and other key states. He also discusses President Donald Trump's midterm campaign strategy as candidates enter the final stretch. Early voting surges as… -
2026 Midterms: Trump Attacks El-Sayed, Election LawsuitsPresident Donald Trump escalated attacks against Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed as Republicans seek to hold the Senate, while legal fights over disputed ballots in California and Alaska raise fresh questions about election… -
House Dems Target Hegseth For Impeachment If They Win MidtermsAuthored by AG News Staff via American Greatness, House Democrats are already plotting to impeach Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth if they regain control of Congress in November, making the Trump administration official a top target of their… -
2026 Midterm Elections: Trump, Obama Rally MichiganPresident Donald Trump is set to campaign in Michigan as Democrats deploy Barack Obama and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez while a Justice Department lawsuit threatens to complicate the closely watched Alaska Senate race. President Donald Trump… -
Trump casts his midterm ballot early in FloridaWEST PALM BEACH, Fla. — President Donald Trump cast his ballot in the midterm elections Saturday, saying he voted for all Republicans in Florida before speaking at a Georgia rally. Trump and first lady Melania Trump arrived at their West…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions