Largest Company end of December 2026?
60%NVIDIA
- NVIDIA60%▲ 2
- Apple38%▼ 1
- Alphabet1%
5 more
- Microsoft1%
- SpaceX<1%
- Tesla<1%
- Saudi Aramco<1%
- Amazon<1%
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Grok App Downloads in October 2026
The odds
60.9median
-5875
Median 60.9Middle half 57.6 – 63.4
How the odds have moved
Median: 59.4 on Oct 20, 60.9 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 25 | 100% | 99¢ | 7.6K | |||
| Above 55 | 93% | ▲ 2 | 91¢ | 95¢ | $1.05 | 1.2K |
| Above 60 | 59% | ▲ 3 | 56¢ | 62¢ | $1.61 | 4.7K |
| Above 65 | 9% | ▼ 5 | 8¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | 5.0K |
| Above 70 | 6% | ▲ 1 | 5¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | 583 |
| Above 90 | 4% | 3¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 12.1K | |
| Above 125 | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 9.0K | |
| Above 160 | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 696 | |
| Above 225 | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 222 | |
| Above 550 | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 14.5K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: xAI, Grok, Grok App Downloads
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Traders Are Letting xAI's Grok Bot Run Unsupervised, and It Already Lost MoneyA May 2026 Morse code prompt injection drained $200,000 in DRB tokens from xAI's Bankrbot, exposing the gap between Musk's promise to "make you whole" and a liability cap reportedly set at $100. xAI's Grok Bot now trades around the clock… -
Forced to pick, Grok’s AI model chooses Republicans. OpenAI’s picks Democrats.Buy One Founder Summit Ticket, Get a Second for Free. Register now. Most AI chatbots won’t outright tell you who to vote for, but some of the models behind them will. A new study found that when forced to choose in this year’s upcoming… -
Tell Me Lies: Grok, GPT and Claude Voice Modes Guess Bitcoin's PriceArtificial intelligence (AI) can carry on a conversation, sound like a financial analyst, and deliver a bitcoin price prediction without missing a beat. But does speaking to an AI produce the same quality of reasoning as typing a question… -
Claude Duet vs Grok Bot vs Muse vs Dots: Always-On AI Agents Compared (2026)Over six weeks, every big AI lab has shipped the same idea. You don't get a chatbot that waits for you to type. You get an agent with its own computer that works on a schedule, connects to your apps, and asks before it does anything risky… -
Tesla Engineer Says Grok Tuned the Cybercab’s New Rearview Camera ViewA Tesla engineer says Grok helped tune the new rearview camera view that Cybercab riders can now open during a ride, to the point that he didn’t need to read the hardware datasheet. Yun-Ta Tsai, a senior staff engineer at Tesla Super… - Grok Recommended Republicans in 92% of Qualifying AI Ballot AnswersGPT-6.1 Sol recommended Democrats in 97% of qualifying responses. The test used model APIs with web search enabled across nearly 500 2026 races. An AI ballot test produced a sharp party split in recommendations for 2026 U.S. elections…
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Grok AI favors Republican candidates while OpenAI’s GPT leans Democratic, study findsResearchers asked AI models to pick winners in nearly 500 races, and the two chatbots rarely agreed on anything Ask most AI chatbots who deserves your vote, and you’ll get a polite non-answer. Ask the models running underneath them, and… - Elon Musk actually follows through on Grok AI adaptation of 'The Odyssey'Elon Musk doesn’t have a great track record of following through on his promises. According to MuskOmeter, a site that tracks the pledges Musk has made and whether he’s kept them, he’s at about a 24 percent hit rate. So it’s almost…
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Grok Bot Will Route Your Tasks to Claude. The Moat Just Moved to the Switchboard.xAI's agent no longer needs the best model — it needs to own the routing, the data path, and the meter. Enterprise allowlists, for now, are requests. The agent economy, every morning. Blair Hayes Agent Infrastructure All stories by Blair… -
I Run Several Claude Code Sessions From My Phone. Grok Bot Is the Switchboard.That is the whole trick: the sessions stay on the machines that have the repositories, the memory and the tools; the conversation about them travels with me. Why one bot per project and not one bot for everything: the bot carries the… - Study finds AI models Grok and GPT show strong opposing political biases in US midterm election picks.A new study reveals that AI models behind chatbots, Grok 4.7 and GPT-6.1 Sol, show significant political bias when asked to pick candidates in the 2024 US midterm elections. Grok favored Republican candidates 92% of the time, while GPT…
- Brave adds GPT 5.6 and Grok 4.6 models to Leo AI assistantBrave has released version 1.98 of its browser, which is currently rolling out to users. One major change the company announced is adding three new AI models to its Leo assistant. Users updating their browser on a computer can now pick…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions