Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157)?
Sep 4, 2027even chance by
- Before Apr 1, 20274%
- Before Jul 1, 202714%
- Before Oct 1, 202766%
2 more
- Before Jan 1, 202888%
- Before Jul 1, 202895%
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Will the FDA approve CagriSema?
The odds
68%Before Jan 1, 2027
- Before Jan 1, 202768%▼ 1
- Before Jul 1, 202793%
- Before Jan 1, 202893%
How the odds have moved
Before Jan 1, 2027: 70% on Oct 20, 68% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 3% | $33.33 | 3.2K | |||
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 68% | ▼ 1 | 64¢ | 71¢ | $1.41 | 1.1K |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 93% | 92¢ | 96¢ | $1.04 | 2.2K | |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 93% | 90¢ | 94¢ | $1.06 | 1.3K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: FDA, CagriSema
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Is my GLP-1 safe? What to know about FDA's crackdown on copycat drugsCheaper copycat versions of the popular weight-loss drugs Wegovy and Zepbound are still being marketed to consumers. The thriving market for "compounded" GLP-1 medications persists despite warnings from federal drug regulators, a recall… -
FDA allowing food companies to switch to salt substituteCBS News FDA allowing food companies to switch to salt substitute Chicago still accepting submissions for official 2026 Christmas tree Metra UP-NW train hits vehicle in Des Plaines, delays service Expert weighs in after nearly 1,000 birds… -
Obesity ETFs to Gain as Novo's CagriSema Shows 25% Weight LossThe finding builds on a market already transformed by GLP-1 therapies, as pharma giants like Eli Lilly LLY and a few others, apart from NVO, race to establish their dominance in the global GLP-1 receptor agonist market, projected to reach… -
Novo Nordisk stock rises as CagriSema delivers 25% weight loss in womenKey Risk: FDA approval disappoints or full-trial efficacy/safety fails to match the women’s results, killing the “Wegovy replacement” story. Sell LLY. The news doesn’t just add a competitor—it targets a high-need segment (women across… -
Novo's CagriSema Delivered 25% Weight Loss in Women. Could It Help Turn Around the Beaten-Down Stock?It compared well to similar medications. The drug combines the company's semaglutide molecule with another active compound. In a development that happens far less often than they'd like, Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO) investors got a hit of… -
Women Lost 25% of Body Weight on CagriSema in Trial Analysis, but Most Users Had Digestive Side EffectsWomen who took Novo Nordisk's experimental weight-loss injection CagriSema lost an average of 25% of their body weight over 68 weeks, according to a new analysis presented at The Menopause Society's 2026 annual meeting in San Diego and… -
Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO) CagriSema Shows 25% Weight Loss In Women As Investors Eye Stock RecoveryBy David Prior | Oct 21, 2026 | Economy & Business, Featured, News & Analysis Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO) has reported that a 2.4 milligram dose of CagriSema was associated with an average weight loss of 25% after 68 weeks in 2,309 women… -
Dr. Scott Gottlieb on FDA's Rare Disease Framework, measles outbreak latest and rise of peptidesFormer FDA Commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the launch of FDA's Rare Disease Framework Initiative, latest developments in the measles outbreak, his thoughts on peptides, and more. Dr. Scott Gottlieb on FDA's… - Novo's CagriSema Helped Women Lose 25% of Weight on Average, Analysis ShowsOct 20 (Reuters) - Novo Nordisk said on Tuesday its next-generation experimental drug, CagriSema, showed 25% weight loss on average in women with obesity or overweight, according to data analyzed after the completion of a late-stage…
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McCormick & Co. navigates FDA regulationsCHICAGO — Food manufacturers are facing an uncertain regulatory future as Food & Drug Administration (FDA) rulings on ultra-processed foods (UPF), artificial colors and more loom large. At Pack Expo 2026, held Oct. 18-21 in Chicago… -
FDA Greenlights Cosibelimab in Metastatic or Locally Advanced CSCCTHE COUNTDOWN IS ON Cosibelimab is now FDA approved for the treatment of patients with metastatic or locally advanced cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma that is not eligible for curative surgery or radiation. Cosibelimab, an anti–PD-L1… -
FDA Approves Bepirovirsen Injection to Treat Chronic Hepatitis BApproval was given to GSK, making its product the first antisense oligonucleotide established for the treatment of chronic hepatitis B. The FDA approved GSK’s bepirovirsen (Hibsago) injection for the treatment of hepatitis B virus (HBV)…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.