Max Verstappen: Retirement

Kalshi Sports › F1 & racing Closes Mar 31, 2030 · $30 today · $1.6K traded · $800 at stake · prices read 2 h ago

The odds

64%Before the 2030 season

Before the 2030 season64%▼ 2
Before the 2029 season49%▼ 1
Before the 2028 season20%▼ 1
Before the 2027 season1%

How the odds have moved

Before the 2030 season: 67% on Oct 20, 64% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Before the 2030 season	64%	▼ 2	60¢	67¢	$1.49	1.2K
Before the 2029 season	49%	▼ 1	45¢	52¢	$1.92	820
Before the 2028 season	20%	▼ 1	16¢	24¢	$4.17	1.5K
Before the 2027 season	1%			1¢	$100.00	10.9K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Retirement Max Verstappen, Max Verstappen

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F1 legend Max Verstappen chooses between Barcelona and Real Madrid ahead of El ClasicoYahoo Sports · 2 days agoThe footballing world will keep a close eye on Sunday's encounter between Barcelona and Real Madrid, in what will be the first Clasico of the season. Former such as Gerard Pique, Jordi Alba and Guti have already given their verdicts and…
Lewis Hamilton tops United States GP FP3 ahead of unhappy rival Max VerstappenYardbarker · 30 h agoFerrari’s Lewis Hamilton has finished practice at the 2026 United States Grand Prix on top after recording the fastest lap time during FP3, as the grid got ready for qualifying. Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc carried the momentum into Saturday…
Max Verstappen responds after Ferrari drivers deride ‘nonsense’ Hadjar claimPlanetF1 · 40 h agoMax Verstappen celebrates pole position after beating the Ferraris Max Verstappen agrees with Charles Leclerc that suggestions the Red Bull driver would’ve won the Singapore Grand Prix by a bigger margin over Leclerc had he been driving…
F1 United States GP: Charles Leclerc pips Max Verstappen to top FP1Yahoo Sports · 3 days agoFerrari driver Charles Leclerc pipped Red Bull's Max Verstappen to top first practice at Formula 1's United States Grand Prix in Austin. Leclerc was just under a tenth faster than Verstappen in an upgraded Ferrari as he aims to deny the…
Laurent Mekies claims Red Bull staff members were still unhappy despite Max Verstappen’s recent winsYardbarker · 35 h agoTeam principal Laurent Mekies has praised the “fire” that he has seen in the engineers at Red Bull this term, both after their “terrible” races and after Max Verstappen’s wins. Verstappen has put Red Bull back on top of the Formula 1…
Pierre Wache says Max Verstappen’s GPS data shows Red Bull’s ‘key’ issue at United States Grand PrixYardbarker · 36 h agoMax Verstappen’s GPS data from the first two practice sessions at the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix shows Pierre Wache where Red Bull now need to improve at COTA. Four-time F1 champion Verstappen had arrived at the Circuit of the…
Max Verstappen’s Idea of an F1 Break? Racing a MercedesPakWheels Blog · 47 h agoMost Formula 1 drivers use a break between races to rest, travel, or spend time away from the track. Max Verstappen apparently has other plans. The four-time F1 world champion spent his weekend racing a Mercedes-AMG GT3 at Portugal’s…
Red Bull tried to hide new COTA upgrade to align RB22 ‘perfectly’ with Max Verstappen’s wishesYardbarker · 43 h agoRed Bull only declared a new front wing and a front corner upgrade for the RB22 prior to the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix, yet their tweaks to the car did not stop there. Red Bull have added an additional vane onto the front wing on…
Max Verstappen Backs Barcelona To Win El Clasico, Ignores Ballon d’Or Talks Ahead Of F1 United States GP | WATCHThe Sunday Guardian · 37 h agoAhead of the United States Grand Prix in Austin, Verstappen was asked about El Clasico and the Ballon d’Or ceremony. His answer on the match was short and clear: “I just prefer if Barcelona wins.” The Ballon d’Or got a cooler reply. He…
Charles Leclerc tops United States GP FP1 over Max Verstappen in upgraded Ferrari SF-26Yardbarker · 2 days agoCharles Leclerc edged Max Verstappen by 0.084s to set the fastest lap time during the first practice session at the 2026 United States Grand Prix at COTA in Texas on Friday. A lot of the talk upon arriving at the Circuit of the Americas…
Max Verstappen: My spine is not great, this Austin track is unacceptableThe Times · 2 days agoFour-times world champion reports damaged lower back after health checks and says effort to fix uneven surface at Circuit of the Americas is like putting a plaster on a big problem Max Verstappen: My spine is not great, this Austin track…
Max Verstappen condemns ‘unacceptable’ USGP circuit after suffering spine damageThe Independent · 2 days agoLando Norris and Max Verstappen noted the damage driving a Formula One car is doing to their spines as the Dutchman labelled the bumps at the Circuit of the Americas as “unacceptable”. The Formula One circus has arrived in Austin for this…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onABC, Bleacher Report, The Wall Street Journal

Trading closesMar 31, 2030 11:59 PM ET

Traded$1.6K (14,417 contracts)

Today$30

At stake$800

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Max Verstappen announces his retirement from F1 before the 2027 F1 season start date, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions

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