Which party will win the U.S. House? (2026)
90%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party90%▼ 1
- Republican Party10%
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How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Directional) (Feb 1, 2027)
The odds
235.9median
208259
Median 235.9Middle half 229 – 245.1
How the odds have moved
Median: 238.2 on Oct 20, 235.9 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 211 | 92% | ▼ 6 | 90¢ | 94¢ | $1.06 | 506 |
| Above 214 | 92% | ▼ 5 | 90¢ | 93¢ | $1.08 | 1.2K |
| Above 217 | 91% | ▼ 1 | 90¢ | 92¢ | $1.09 | 851 |
| Above 220 | 90% | ▼ 1 | 88¢ | 91¢ | $1.10 | 1.8K |
| Above 223 | 83% | ▼ 5 | 80¢ | 86¢ | $1.16 | 580 |
| Above 226 | 79% | ▼ 5 | 76¢ | 82¢ | $1.22 | 1.1K |
| Above 229 | 75% | ▲ 1 | 73¢ | 77¢ | $1.30 | 1.7K |
| Above 232 | 63% | ▼ 6 | 60¢ | 65¢ | $1.54 | 1.1K |
| Above 235 | 53% | ▼ 4 | 51¢ | 55¢ | $1.82 | 2.3K |
| Above 238 | 43% | ▼ 5 | 41¢ | 45¢ | $2.22 | 1.3K |
| Above 241 | 36% | ▲ 5 | 33¢ | 39¢ | $2.56 | 2.0K |
| Above 244 | 28% | ▲ 4 | 26¢ | 30¢ | $3.33 | 883 |
| Above 247 | 20% | ▲ 2 | 16¢ | 24¢ | $4.17 | 550 |
| Above 250 | 13% | ▲ 1 | 11¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 9.3K |
| Above 253 | 10% | ▲ 4 | 6¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 686 |
| Above 256 | 7% | ▲ 2 | 3¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 685 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: House, Midterms, Directional
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Vance front and center in Republican midterms push – is this a dry run for a White House bid?Vice-president’s visibility has risen as Trump’s popularity wanes, but path to inherit Maga throne is more complicated than it may seem A day after JD Vance suggested Donald Trump would endorse him if he runs for president, the… -
Mike Johnson asks Trump for more midterm money as Republicans seek to avert disaster in House racesIn the final sprint to the midterms, Speaker Mike Johnson went to President Donald Trump with a crucial ask, according to a person familiar with the exchange. Johnson’s message: Could Trump spare more cash to help House Republicans in this… -
Map Shows Where Top 2028 Democrats Are Campaigning Ahead of MidtermsOct 23, 2026 at 06:38 PM EDT Potential 2028 Democratic presidential candidates like former Vice President Kamala Harris, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg are hitting the campaign… -
Top MAHA adviser Calley Means resigns from White House days ahead of midtermsWASHINGTON — A top Make America Healthy Again adviser to the Trump administration has resigned, less than two weeks before a midterm election that may serve as a referendum on the MAHA movement. Calley Means, who joined the administration… -
Democrats poised for significant House gains, Cook Political Report estimatesThe nonpartisan Cook Political Report projects Democrats will most likely flip between 12 and 22 seats in November — potentially giving them bigger majorities than the ones they won during blue waves in the 2006 and 2018 midterms. On… -
Minnesota Democrats divided over Hasan Piker visit a week before midtermsUpdated on: October 22, 2026 / 9:47 PM CDT / CBS Minnesota A controversial left-wing commentator's visit to Minnesota one week before the midterm elections is dividing Democrats, many of whom are distancing themselves from him. Hasan… -
Democrat hoping to flip Nebraska House seat pushing for action on affordabilityCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. Democrat hoping to… -
Map Shows Closest House Races as Cook Shifts 19 Seats Toward DemocratsOct 23, 2026 at 12:01 PM EDT Oct 23, 2026 at 12:04 PM EDT No seats were shifted toward Republicans in the latest update from the elections forecaster published on Friday. The update brings six seats that were previously classified as… - Climate group pours in midterms money for DemocratsBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. In an election defined…
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Thune weighs nightmare scenario for GOP as Democrats threaten to flip HouseElection forecasters see Democrats taking the House, but Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., told Fox News Digital he is confident Republicans will hold the chamber, and he won’t have to work with potential Speaker Hakeem Jeffries… -
Senate Democrat Probes Tether Payments to Ex-White House Crypto Adviser’s FirmTether is facing fresh scrutiny in the Senate over millions of dollars that reportedly flowed to a firm co-owned by Bo Hines while he helped shape U.S. stablecoin law at the White House. Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., the top Democrat… -
Top intel Democrats say they've "war-gamed" how to react if Trump alleges foreign interference in midtermsOctober 23, 2026 / 5:26 PM EDT / CBS News The top Democrats on the House and Senate intelligence committees say they are preparing for the possibility that President Trump makes claims of foreign interference to challenge next month's…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions