Which party will win the U.S. House? (2026)
90%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party90%
- Republican Party10%
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How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Feb 1, 2027)
The odds
238.4median
207252
Median 238.4Middle half 230.3 – 246.7
How the odds have moved
Median: 235.3 on Oct 20, 238.4 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below 210 | 4% | 4¢ | 4¢ | $25.64 | 535.2K | |
| 210-213 | 2% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $37.04 | 323.0K | |
| 214-217 | 3% | 3¢ | 3¢ | $34.48 | 354.0K | |
| 218-221 | 3% | 3¢ | 3¢ | $34.48 | 298.5K | |
| 222-225 | 5% | 5¢ | 5¢ | $18.87 | 246.7K | |
| 226-229 | 7% | ▲ 1 | 7¢ | 8¢ | $13.33 | 238.3K |
| 230-233 | 9% | 9¢ | 10¢ | $10.42 | 243.3K | |
| 234-237 | 14% | ▼ 1 | 14¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 241.9K |
| 238-241 | 13% | 13¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 242.9K | |
| 242-245 | 11% | 11¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | 283.4K | |
| 246-249 | 9% | 9¢ | 9¢ | $11.49 | 295.6K | |
| Above 249 | 18% | ▲ 1 | 18¢ | 19¢ | $5.26 | 801.1K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: House, Midterms
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White House takes new actions ahead of midterm electionsNBC News Catastrophic flooding prompts rescues Good News: Unlikely friendship leads to trip of a lifetime White House takes new actions ahead of midterm elections All-out fight for critical battleground states ramps up Inside the battle… -
‘Brilliant James’ helped return Trump to the White House. Can he conquer the midterms?James Blair’s data-driven approach delivered victory in 2024 but president’s unpopularity and idiosyncratic style do not bode well this time They are both young, bald and fathers of four. They are also the brains behind Donald Trump. But… -
Obama fires up Democrats at midterm rally in ClevelandFormer President Barack Obama returned to the campaign circuit Saturday during a midterm rally in Ohio for U.S. Senate candidate Sherrod Brown and gubernatorial candidate Amy Acton. Obama fires up Democrats at midterm rally in Cleveland… -
Vance front and center in Republican midterms push – is this a dry run for a White House bid?Vice-president’s visibility has risen as Trump’s popularity wanes, but path to inherit Maga throne is more complicated than it may seem A day after JD Vance suggested Donald Trump would endorse him if he runs for president, the… -
Democrats, Republicans dealing with major midterm headwinds, WSJ associate editor saysWall Street Journal associate editor John Bussey breaks down what we can learn from early voting trends on ‘Fox Report.’ ... Democrats, Republicans dealing with major midterm headwinds, WSJ associate editor says Wall Street Journal… -
Jeffries: Democrats "on the verge of taking back control" of the HouseCNN's Manu Raju hits the campaign trail in California with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who could be just months away from becoming the first Black speaker of the House of Representatives. While confident, Jeffries is also… -
Obama hits campaign trail to stump for Democrats as midterm election nearsFormer President Barack Obama attacked the Trump administration over the Iran war and high consumer prices as he hit the campaign trail for Democrats ahead the nationwide midterm elections. On Saturday, the Democrat held a campaign rally… -
Rep. Jason Crow says Democrats are "running against our own history" in midterm electionsDemocratic Rep. Jason Crow told "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan" that his party has several challenges in this midterm election: "We're running against Donald Trump. We're running against MAGA extremism. We're running against… -
Obama hits the campaign trail for Democrats with midterms less than 2 weeks awayCBS News Bay Area Evening Edition Weekend 6pm CBS News Los Angeles Weekend 6pm CBS News Philadelphia 7:30pm What's in Season with Michael Marks CBS News Texas Saturday 5pm -
In Arkansas, Democrats see an opening at the edge of the competitive midterms mapArkansas Democratic Senate nominee Hallie Shoffner speaks with voters at a campaign stop in Hope, Ark. Friday, Oct. 23, 2026. Stephen Fowler/NPR hide caption HOPE, Ark. — For Senate candidate Hallie Shoffner, the most important political… -
Mike Johnson asks Trump for more midterm money as Republicans seek to avert disaster in House racesIn the final sprint to the midterms, Speaker Mike Johnson went to President Donald Trump with a crucial ask, according to a person familiar with the exchange. Johnson’s message: Could Trump spare more cash to help House Republicans in this… -
Map Shows Where Top 2028 Democrats Are Campaigning Ahead of MidtermsOct 23, 2026 at 06:38 PM EDT Potential 2028 Democratic presidential candidates like former Vice President Kamala Harris, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg are hitting the campaign…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions