Which party will win the U.S. House? (2026)
91%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party91%▼ 1
- Republican Party9%▲ 1
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Congressional Progressive Caucus size after the midterms? (Feb 1, 2027)
The odds
100.1median
93115
Median 100.1Middle half 97.0 – 104.3
How the odds have moved
Median: 100.1 on Oct 19, 100.1 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 95 | 95% | 91¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | 4.00 | |
| Above 97 | 75% | 70¢ | 79¢ | $1.27 | ||
| Above 100 | 51% | 46¢ | 55¢ | $1.82 | 4.00 | |
| Above 105 | 21% | 16¢ | 25¢ | $4.00 | 4.00 | |
| Above 110 | 11% | 6¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 8.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Congressional Progressive Caucus
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House Democrats plan a first 100-days agenda if they sweep to power in midterm elections4:21 PM / Wednesday October 21, 2026 WASHINGTON — House Democrats are preparing an ambitious 100-days agenda focused on delivering their campaign promises — making life more affordable and conducting vast oversight of the Trump… -
GOP's corruption image problem not helped by Musk money dump in TexasRep. Greg Casar, chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, talks with Jen Psaki about how the issue of the Trump administration's corruption is resonating with voters, and how, as a member of the House Oversight Committee, he hopes to… -
Who’s running where? Indian-origin candidates in the 2026 US midtermsMore than a dozen Indian-origin candidates are vying for key offices across the US, from governor’s mansions and state capitals to Congress and city hall, as the 2026 midterm elections approach With the US midterm elections approaching… - 'Unwarranted, Uninformed': MEA Condemns US Congresswoman's Questioning India's Electoral ProcessIndia condemns US Congresswoman comments on Indian elections. India strongly rejected US Congresswoman Pramila Jayapal's remarks concerning the country's electoral process on Friday, categorising them as "unwarranted, uninformed" and…
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Democrats 'champing at the bit' to make Mike Johnson's darkest fears a reality: reportHouse Speaker Mike Johnson warned a room of Christian conservatives earlier this year about what Democrats would do with a House majority, and a new report reveals Democrats are already preparing to do exactly that. Johnson hysterically… -
'Interfering in electoral practices': India pulls up US lawmaker for claims on voter roll deletionsThe Times of India NEW DELHI: India on Friday strongly rejected US Congresswoman Pramila Jayapal's remarks concerning the country's electoral process, calling them âunwarranted and uninformedâ and accusing her of interfering in the… -
Indian envoy slams Jayapal remarks on voter rolls as interferenceIANS Oct 15, 2026 09:25 0 Washington, Oct 15 (IANS) India’s Ambassador to the US, Vinay Mohan Kwatra, on Thursday sharply rejected Indian-American Congresswoman Pramila Jayapal’s charge that New Delhi was purging voters, calling her… -
Congressional Democrats coming in to stump for Will LawrenceWith less than three weeks to go until the Nov. 3 election, several notable members of Congress are coming into mid-Michigan's 7th District to stump for Democratic nominee Will Lawrence. Lawrence's campaign told the Detroit Free Press that… -
March to the Midterms: Our Revolution’s Final GOTV PushHome » March to the Midterms: Our Revolution’s Final GOTV Push The final stretch to Election Day is here — and Our Revolution is mobilizing to turn grassroots power into votes. On Monday, October 19 at 8:30 PM ET / 5:30 PM PT, Our… - Bernie Sanders Brings Oligarchy Tour to Houston With Casar, O'RourkeBernie Sanders is set to bring his “Fighting Oligarchy: Where We Go From Here” tour to Houston on Tuesday, October 20, with U.S. Rep. Greg Casar and former U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke joining him at Wheeler Avenue Baptist Church. The event…
- Statement From CPC Chair Greg Casar on The Outrageous Raid of The Home of CPC Deputy Chair Ilhan OmarCongressional Progressive Caucus (.gov) Statement From CPC Chair Greg Casar on The Outrageous Raid of The Home of CPC Deputy Chair Ilhan Omar What we stand for
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The Latest: Battle lines as Republicans retreat from front-line House districtsMuch of the House Democrats’ agenda, if they regain power, would depend on the size of the majority. Details also depend on the Senate, and whether it flips to Democrats. “We cannot simply go back to the status quo,” said Usamah Andrabi, a…
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.