October Inflation China - Annual
0.77%median
0.5%1.4%
Median 0.77%Middle half 0.7% – 0.94%
Install
Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September (September 2026)
The odds
0.00median
-0.500.30
Median 0.00Middle half -0.10 – 0.13
How the odds have moved
Median: 0.02 on Oct 19, 0.00 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -0.40 | 97% | 94¢ | $1.03 | 100 | ||
| Above -0.30 | 97% | 94¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 64.00 | |
| Above -0.20 | 91% | 87¢ | 95¢ | $1.05 | 40.00 | |
| Above -0.10 | 75% | 71¢ | 79¢ | $1.27 | 413 | |
| Above 0.00 | 50% | 45¢ | 54¢ | $1.85 | 600 | |
| Above 0.10 | 29% | 25¢ | 33¢ | $3.03 | 340 | |
| Above 0.20 | 14% | 10¢ | 19¢ | $5.26 | 141 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Federal Reserve, Fed, FOMC
Search ›-
Trump Forms Committee to Probe Federal Reserve’s Lisa CookPresident Donald Trump on Oct. 9 announced a new committee to investigate whether a Federal Reserve governor made false statements. The committee will probe allegations that Lisa Cook, governor of the Federal Reserve, offered false… -
Can the Federal Reserve Keep Rates High Without Breaking Something?Although the US Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming October 27-28 meeting, the bigger problem remains. Inflation is still stubborn, oil is well above $100, and US borrowing costs are… -
Ethereum Faces Downside Pressure as Arthur Hayes Sells Holdings Ahead of Make-or-Break Federal Reserve MeetingEthereum has slipped back toward the $2,350 to $2,380 range, dragged down in part by high-profile asset dumps from BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, while Bitcoin tests vital support at $80,500. One of the primary catalysts driving social… -
President Donald Trump Just Proclaimed, "Tariffs Don't Cause Inflation, They Cause Wealth," but Data From Federal Reserve Economists Show OtherwiseHowever, this doesn't mean that all of the president's policies are necessarily well-received on Wall Street. For example, Trumpflation (inflation specifically driven by Donald Trump's policies) is a genuine threat to the artificial… - September Jobs Data Set to Influence Federal Reserve’s Rate Strategy as Futures ClimbU.S. stock futures advanced during Friday’s pre-market session as market participants prepared for employment figures that may influence the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy stance on borrowing costs. S&P 500 futures increased 0.4%, while…
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Inflation, earnings reports and the mood of consumers and the Federal Reserve fill out a busy weekThey all arrive just weeks before the Nov. 3 midterm elections that will determine the future makeup of Congress as the U.S. economy grapples with constantly shifting global trade conflicts and a global oil shortage brought on by the U.S… -
Fed policy, Q2 earnings, crude oil prices among key market triggers next weekStock market investors will closely track the US Federal Reserve's policy decision Mumbai: Stock market investors will closely track the US Federal Reserve's policy decision, a packed corporate earnings calendar, crude oil price movements… -
Wall Street week ahead: Big tech earnings and Fed decision to test US stock rallyUS stock investors are preparing for an important week as major technology companies report their quarterly earnings and the Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision on Wednesday. Both events could test the strength of the… -
Black Family Wealth Falls 25% as Racial Gap Widens, Fed FindsWASHINGTON — The median net worth of Black American families fell 25% between 2022 and 2025, reversing years of gains and widening the racial wealth gap, according to the Federal Reserve’s newly released Survey of Consumer Finances… -
Feds reach agreement with Antioch, police department in racism investigationUpdated on: January 3, 2025 / 1:54 PM PST / CBS/Bay City News Service The U.S. Department of Justice on Friday announced an agreement with the city of Antioch and its police department, resolving its investigation into racism and other… -
Crude Oil Prices Near $120 Amid West Asia Tensions, US Fed Rate Decision & Supply Risks In FocusNew Delhi: Global crude oil prices are approaching the USD 120 per barrel mark as escalating tensions in West Asia and the upcoming US Federal Reserve policy decision keep energy markets on edge. Analysts expect another volatile week amid… -
XRP News Today: Fed Decision, Ripple Swell And DTCC Tokenisation Launch Set Up Key WeekWriter by choice, CryptoCurrency Writer, and Researcher by chance. Currently, focusing on financial news and analysis, as well as cryptocurrency news and data. One may not call me a crypto “Enthusiast” but trust me I'm getting there. XRP…
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CPI-U index in October (October 2026)
336.5median
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US economic state at the end of 2026?
97%Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
- Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)97%▲ 7
- Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)2%▼ 7
- Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)1%
1 more
- Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)<1%▼ 1
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions