AI bubble burst by...?
27%June 30, 2027
- December 31, 20268%▼ 5
- June 30, 202727%▼ 6
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When will Stephen Schwarzman leave as Blackstone CEO? (Before Jan 1, 2029)
The odds
22%Before Jan 1, 2029
- Before Jul 1, 20277%
- Before Jan 1, 202812%
- Before Jan 1, 202922%
How the odds have moved
Before Jul 1, 2027: 6% on Oct 31, 7% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 7% | 3¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | ||
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 12% | 8¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | ||
| Before Jan 1, 2029 | 22% | 18¢ | 25¢ | $4.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Stephen Schwarzman, Blackstone CEO
Search ›- Interview with Stephen SchwarzmanThe independent newspaper of Harvard Business School Stephen is an alumnus of HBS and is on the School’s visiting committee. He came to visit class last Friday and we managed to catch up with him for a few minutes beforehand to ask him a…
- Susan Collins Campaigns with Private Equity Insider Whose Firm Shuttered Paper Mills in Jay, BucksportMaine AFL-CIO Susan Collins Campaigns with Private Equity Insider Whose Firm Shuttered Paper Mills in Jay, Bucksport Susan Collins campaigned with former West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin last Wednesday in Androscoggin County. Manchin’s…
- ARTHUR HERMAN: Musk and others prove that this election cash is king. Will it be enough?Rep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., discusses Elon Musk's $500,000 contribution to his re-election effort and the influence of socialist candidates on ‘Hannity.’ What lit a fire under billionaire SpaceX CEO Elon Musk this midterm cycle? He’s given…
- Wall St titans skip Riyadh, still come to GulfThis year, Houthi attacks forced the postponement of FII, but executives — including Apollo’s Marc Rowan, BlackRock’s Larry Fink, Blackstone’s Stephen Schwarzman, and KKR’s Scott Nuttall — made the trip to the region anyway. “REDA is a…
- Blackstone CEO Sounds Alarm on AI Supply Crunch: 'Seldom in My Career Have I Seen' Anything Like ItBlackstone reported adjusted earnings of $1.32 per share, beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $1.26. Revenue totaled $3.217 billion, below the $3.280 billion consensus estimate. Blackstone Earnings Beat As Assets Reach Record $1.4…
- Merrin took $10,500 tied to data center financiers, including Blackstone CEO behind $10 billion Ohio projectNew federal campaign records show $7,000 from Blackstone chief Stephen Schwarzman and his wife, plus $3,500 attributed to an AI infrastructure investor, as the Republican candidate disputes criticism of his data center record. Was this…
- Sunday Summary: Market Slowing Down? Speeding Up? How About Both?Last week was a good one for Ken Griffin. The billionaire money manager who — along with Vornado Realty Trust and Rudin — is in the midst of one of New York City’s most ambitious developments at 350 Park Avenue, scored a cool $3.3 billion…
- Early Voting Numbers Released In VirginiaNew early voting numbers from Virginia are offering a positive sign for Republicans in the blue-leaning state. Election analyst E DataGuy reported 870,212 early and mail ballots in his October 22 Virginia update. His graphic assigned…
- Republicans Expand Early Vote Advantage In Key Battleground StateOhio Republicans received an early voting estimate Thursday as a Senate model showed their party ahead among classified ballots. Election analyst E DataGuy posted his October 22 update covering 838,018 early and mail ballots. His graphic…
- BX Q3 deep dive: AI infrastructure, fundraising momentum, and real estate crosscurrentsAlternative investment manager Blackstone (NYSE:BX) reported revenue ahead of Wall Street's expectations in Q3 2026, but sales fell by 2.3% year on year to $3.26 billion. Its non-GAAP profit of $1.32 per share was 4.9% above analysts'…
- Blackstone's data center bet pushes assets to a record $1.35 trillionJudith Murphy is a financial journalist and market analyst covering AI, technology stocks, and emerging market trends. She has contributed to multiple financial publications and brings a data-driven approach to her coverage of the…
- Trump's MAGA Inc unleashes $277M last-ditch effort to save Republicans in key racesPresident Donald Trump has unleashed more than $277 million in a last-minute TV and direct mail advertising blitz over the final six weeks of the midterm campaign to help struggling Republican candidates in several races that are key to…
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All companies ›Largest Company end of December 2026?
63%Apple
- Apple63%▼ 7
- NVIDIA35%▲ 8
- Microsoft1%
5 more
- Alphabet1%
- SpaceX<1%
- Tesla<1%
- Saudi Aramco<1%
- Amazon<1%
DraftKings App Downloads in October (October 2026)
343.8median
5705
Median 343.8Middle half 282.6 – 405
Hulu: Stream shows & movies app downloads in November 2026
79.1median
45141
Median 79.1Middle half 67.7 – 96.4
Max App Downloads in October (October 2026)
62.5high with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as 62.5.
- Reaches 5100%
- Reaches 20100%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by...?
99%October 31
- October 3199%▲ 1
- November 3099%▲ 1
- December 3199%▲ 14
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions