Average Wall Street bonus in 2026
$285,776median
$175,000$375,000
Median $285,776Middle half $263,426 – $307,870
Install
Canadian counter-tariff rate on U.S. EVs at the end of 2026
The odds
27.45%median
-10%60%
Median 27.45%Middle half 12.5% – 38.26%
How the odds have moved
Median: 27.14% on Oct 19, 27.45% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0% | 81% | 76¢ | 86¢ | $1.16 | 158 | |
| Above 10% | 78% | 73¢ | 82¢ | $1.22 | 101 | |
| Above 20% | 68% | 65¢ | 70¢ | $1.43 | 453 | |
| Above 30% | 44% | ▼ 1 | 42¢ | 46¢ | $2.17 | 333 |
| Above 40% | 21% | 16¢ | 26¢ | $3.85 | 15.00 | |
| Above 50% | 7% | 2¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 5.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: tariffs, tariff, U.S. EVs
Search ›No recent headlines name this market's subject.
Related markets
All jobs ›US retail jobs added this holiday season (September–December 2026)
563,083median
250,000650,000
Median 563,083
October 2026 Employment Combo · U3 & NFP
15%U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: 50-99k
- U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: 50-99k15%
- U3: 4.3%, NFP growth: 50-99k10%▲ 1
- U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: 100k or above6%
8 more
- U3: 4.4% or above, NFP growth: Below 50k4%▼ 1
- U3: 4.4% or above, NFP growth: 50-99k4%▼ 1
- U3: 4.4% or above, NFP growth: 100k or above4%▼ 1
- U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: Below 50k1%
- U3: 4.2%, NFP growth: Below 50k1%
- U3: 4.2%, NFP growth: 50-99k1%
- U3: 4.3%, NFP growth: Below 50k1%▼ 21
- U3: 4.3%, NFP growth: 100k or above1%▼ 4
US jobs revisions in the report covering October 2026
32,143median
-150,000150,000
Median 32,143
UK retail sales in October (October 2026)
0.78%median
-2%3%
Median 0.78%
China unemployment rate in October (China UE Oct 2026)
5.15%median
4.5%5.7%
Median 5.15%Middle half 5.05% – 5.26%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions