Will NYC ban horse-drawn carriages in 2026?
96%chance▼ 2
Install
Who will announce a California departure in 2026?
The odds
56%Peter Thiel
- Peter Thiel56%▼ 1
- Larry Page34%▲ 4
- Chamath Palihapitiya7%
- Mark Zuckerberg6%
- Palmer Luckey5%
- Marc Andreessen4%
- Jensen Huang3%
How the odds have moved
Peter Thiel: 57% on Oct 20, 56% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Thiel | 56% | ▼ 1 | 56¢ | 58¢ | $1.72 | 6.1K |
| Larry Page | 34% | ▲ 4 | 34¢ | 37¢ | $2.70 | 4.9K |
| Chamath Palihapitiya | 7% | 5¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | 2.3K | |
| Mark Zuckerberg | 6% | 6¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | 10.8K | |
| Palmer Luckey | 5% | 2¢ | 10¢ | $10.10 | 937 | |
| Marc Andreessen | 4% | 1¢ | 8¢ | $12.82 | 3.2K | |
| Jensen Huang | 3% | 2¢ | 6¢ | $16.39 | 486 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: California, Peter Thiel, Larry Page
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Bitcoin: Chamath Palihapitiya fears hacking facilitated by AIArtificial intelligence opens up new possibilities, but it also raises questions about the security of cryptocurrencies. Billionaire investor Chamath Palihapitiya believes an AI-related cyberattack could one day compromise bitcoin and… -
Peter Thiel disapproves of Iran war in notable break with Trump: ‘We should not have done it’Billionaire investor Peter Thiel does not think the US should have started the war with Iran – a notable break from one of President Trump’s most loyal supporters less than two weeks ahead of the midterm elections. The Palantir and PayPal… -
Chamath Palihapitiya Warns Bitcoin Will Hit Zero After Years of Bullish CallsChamath Palihapitiya once called bitcoin “gold 2.0,” predicted a $1 million price, and urged investors to treat it as financial insurance. Now the billionaire investor says bitcoin is capped and eventually headed for zero, courtesy of an… -
Bitcoin Could Be Hacked and Fall to Zero, Warns Chamath PalihapitiyaBillionaire investor Chamath Palihapitiya has warned that Bitcoin could eventually lose its value because of security risks, limited financial privacy and difficulties upgrading its technology. He believes advances in artificial… -
Billionaire Investor Chamath Palihapitiya Says Bitcoin Will Eventually Be Hacked by AI and Go to ZeroThe debate over whether Bitcoin’s hashing algorithm can be hacked continues to evolve. This time, billionaire investor Chamath Palihapitiya revealed that AI will eventually hack the Bitcoin network. In an interview shared today, the… -
Bitcoin ‘Goes to Zero’ After a Hack, Chamath Palihapitiya PredictsBillionaire investor Chamath Palihapitiya says Bitcoin BTCUSD has a ceiling on its value and believes a future hack could eventually send it to zero. Why Palihapitiya Thinks Bitcoin Is Capped Palihapitiya told the Moonshots podcast that… - Peter Thiel breaks with Trump over Iran war: ‘We should not have done it’The remarks from an early tech-world supporter of the president are his most explicit on the war dividing Republicans. Billionaire technology investor Peter Thiel said he’s skeptical of the U.S. war with Iran and does not believe the…
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Peter Thiel Says Iran War Was a MistakeBillionaire Peter Thiel is backing President Trump but balking at his Iran war. In audio from an Oct. 12 lecture obtained by Politico' s Decoded, the influential GOP donor said... Peter Thiel Says Iran War Was a Mistake Billionaire Peter… -
1% Of Companies Represent 90% Of AI Spending, And 80% Of The 90% Comes From Unprofitable Companies: Chamath PalihapitiyaThe artificial intelligence sector has been posting eye-popping revenue numbers, with AI platforms reporting record-breaking adoption curves and hyperscalers pouring billions into infrastructure. However, according to venture capitalist… -
MAGA billionaire Peter Thiel splits with Trump over Iran war: ‘We should not have done it’MAGA billionaire Peter Thiel has split with President Trump over the continued war in Iran, now claiming that the U.S. "should not have done it." Delivering remarks at a private event last week, the tech billionaire slammed the president's… -
Larry Page could avoid $15 billion in California taxGoogle co-founder Larry Page could avoid nearly $15 billion in taxes under California’s proposed billionaire wealth tax after moving business entities out of the state and purchasing luxury properties in Miami, Florida, according to a…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions