Which party will win the U.S. House? (2026)
90%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party90%
- Republican Party10%
Install
CA-11 House winner? (2026)
The odds
79%Scott Wiener
- Scott Wiener79%
- Connie Chan21%▼ 2
How the odds have moved
Scott Wiener: 80% on Oct 20, 79% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Wiener | 79% | 78¢ | 79¢ | $1.27 | 192.5K | |
| Connie Chan | 21% | ▼ 2 | 20¢ | 22¢ | $4.55 | 63.8K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: CA- House, Scott Wiener, Connie Chan
Search ›-
Connie Chan falling behind Scott Wiener, despite Pelosi endorsementWith less than two weeks before election day, Scott Wiener and Connie Chan are nearly tied as they battle to represent San Francisco in Congress, according to a recent poll. "The margin of error overlaps, so that's an effective tie between… -
Connie Chan, vying for Pelosi's seat, stands with Gaza and calls for arms embargo on IsraelConnie Chan, vying for Pelosi's seat, stands with Gaza Israel kills man with disability in Syria: report Two dead in eastern Saudi airport attack: aviation authority Egypt weighs Yemen intervention as ghosts of 1960s war loom How Egypt's… -
Scott Wiener is coming for Connie Chan’s turf. Is it a numbers game, or ‘psychological warfare’?On opposite sides of the Richmond District, canvassers hit the streets on a recent Saturday morning with warring goals. About 50 union carpenters left Scott Wiener’s Westside headquarters in the Inner Richmond looking to secure votes for… -
Election Extra! Gary McCoy nets contributions, Saikat Chakrabarti commits more money to Connie ChanIn the few remaining days before the Nov. 3 election, Mission Local will be posting “election extras” with updates from the campaign trail. Today: A surprise rush of contributions to District 8 supervisor candidate Gary McCoy, and former… -
‘The Godmother’s’ power fades as new poll shows Nancy Pelosi’s pick for successor flounderingFormer House Speaker Nancy Pelosi remains a Democratic powerhouse in California, but a bombshell poll just two weeks before Election Day suggests even her political clout may not be enough to handpick her successor. Pelosi, who is set to… -
Opinion: Why labor supports Connie Chan for CongressWhy labor supports Connie Chan for Congress 48 Hills Opinion: Why labor supports Connie Chan for Congress Local unions aren't always in agreement on politics—but they agree on this election It’s a common misconception that organized labor… -
California Senator Scott Wiener Faces Backlash Over Claims of Election Interference: ‘Why is upholding the law fascist behavior?’That’s a bold thing to say The remarks he made on social media sparked a dispute over whether federal officials were protecting election integrity or using citizenship-related investigations to undermine political opponents. While some… -
The SF race to replace Pelosi is locked in 'an effective tie'At left, Connie Chan; at right, Scott Wiener. With less than two weeks before election day, Scott Wiener and Connie Chan are nearly tied as they battle to represent San Francisco in Congress, according to a recent poll. “The margin of… -
Meet the S.F. congressional candidates: Expand work visas and green card access?Welcome back to our “Meet the Candidates” series, where the congressional candidates respond to a question in 100 words or fewer. Answers will be published every Monday. To see what candidates said previously on topics like foreign policy… -
Poll shows first independent evidence: Wiener slightly leads Chan in race to succeed PelosiSan Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan, right, during her debate with State Sen. Scott Wiener at KQED in San Francisco on Thursday, Oct. 1, 2026. Polling is starting to show that Wiener has a narrow lead over Chan in the race. With less than… - Poll: Chan trailing Wiener despite Pelosi supportThe incumbent has campaigned heavily for Connie Chan since endorsing her. But voters who view Nancy Pelosi favorably aren’t flocking to Chan, an independent poll finds. Nancy Pelosi remains popular with voters in the San Francisco district…
-
Ro Khanna, progressives unite at UC Berkeley for a rebuilt Democratic PartyRep. Ro Khanna, who represents California’s 17th Congressional District, including the heart of Silicon Valley, speaks on Sproul Plaza on Wednesday. Khanna has made stops in Orlando, Boston and Reno to bring “the fight against the…
Related markets
All house ›NC-13 House Election Winner
66%Brad Knott (R)
- Brad Knott (R)66%▼ 13
- Paul Barringer (D)31%▲ 9
MN-05 House winner?
94%Ilhan Omar
- Ilhan Omar94%▼ 1
- John Nagel5%▲ 1
- DeVelle Jackson1%
TX-15 House winner? (2026)
86%Bobby Pulido
- Bobby Pulido86%▼ 1
- Monica De La Cruz15%▲ 4
NC-13 House winner?
69%Brad Knott
- Brad Knott69%▼ 11
- Paul Barringer31%▲ 10
NC-03 House winner?
66%Greg Murphy
- Greg Murphy66%▼ 6
- Raymond Smith Jr.34%▲ 5
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions