Will a court invalidate or enjoin Nikki Lucas's election as Brooklyn Dem chair? (Before Nov 1, 2026)

Kalshi Politics › States & cities Closes Sat 11:59 PM ET · $1.3K traded · $1.3K at stake · prices read 3 h ago

The odds

54%chance

How the odds have moved

Yes: 54% on Oct 20, 54% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Yes	54%		6¢	98¢	$1.02	2.5K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Nikki Lucas, Brooklyn Dem

Search ›

Rodneyse Bichotte Hermelyn Strikes a Pose for Hell GateHell Gate · 6 days agoA Tuesday in court with the Brooklyn Dems. Rodneyse Bichotte Hermelyn Strikes a Pose for Hell Gate A Tuesday in court with the Brooklyn Dems. Often the most interesting moments of a legal battle happen in the halls and elevators of the…
NY Elections, Census and Redistricting Update 10/19/26CityLand · 6 days agoBrooklyn Democratic Leadership Fight Continues In State Court Julio Pena III v. Nydia Velázquez et al Justice Sweeney will hold an order to show cause on October 20th, where petitioner Julio Pena III will argue why an order should not be…
Is It Ok To Do a Coup After a Judge Ordered Leaders Not To Do a Coup if the Judge Said You’re Not a Leader When It Struck Down Your Prior Coup Effort?Hell Gate · 7 days agoOnly the subtlest legal minds will grasp the big questions as the Brooklyn Dems legal battle returns to court. Will there even be a winter in 2042? Is It Ok To Do a Coup After a Judge Ordered Leaders Not To Do a Coup if the Judge Said…

Related markets

All states & cities ›

Politics › States & cities

Will NYC ban horse-drawn carriages in 2026?

96%chance▼ 1

Politics › States & cities

Will Mamdani sign an executive order this week? (10/25 - 10/31) (From Oct 25, 2026 to Oct 31, 2026)

23%chance▲ 15

Politics › States & cities

Will California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?

61%chance

Politics › States & cities

Who will Obama endorse before the midterms? (Before Nov 3, 2026)

30%Mary Peltola

Mary Peltola30%▲ 6
Karen Bass8%▼ 1
Dan Osborn5%

Politics › States & cities

Tim Walz out as Governor of Minnesota? (Before 2027)

5%Before 2027

Before 20275%

Politics › States & cities

Will Tennessee regulate data center water use? (Before Aug 1, 2027)

35%chance

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onNew York State Unified Court System

Trading closesOct 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$1.3K (2,499 contracts)

At stake$1.3K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If any New York State court invalidates, annuls, or enjoins Nikki Lucas's election as chair of the Brooklyn Democratic Party, including by ordering a new election for that office or barring her from serving or acting as chair, in the Kings County Supreme Court litigation over the Brooklyn Democratic Party's leadership, any appeal of that litigation, or any other action challenging Lucas's election as chair before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions