Alaska Air passenger load factor in Q1 2027

Kalshi Finance › Companies Closes Aug 17, 2027 · $578 traded · $537 at stake · prices read 9 h ago

The odds

79.42%median

75.5%81.5%

Median 79.42%Middle half 77.62% – 80.55%

How the odds have moved

Median: 79.27% on Oct 27, 79.42% now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Above 76%	91%	88¢		$1.10	360
Above 76.5%	91%	18¢		$1.10	200
Above 80%	42%			$2.38	102
Above 80.5%	27%			$3.70	81.00
Above 81%	5%	1¢	9¢	$11.11	179

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Alaska Air

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UBS maintains Alaska Air Group at Buy, lowers price target to $48 from $51TradingView · 3 days agoUBS maintained Alaska Air Group at Buy and lowered its price target to $48 from $51, a 5.9% decrease. The price target implies an upside of 25.4% from the Nov 2 close of $38.29. Recent analyst actions on Alaska Air Group Across the five…
Financial Survey: Air China (OTCMKTS:AIRYY) & Alaska Air Group (NYSE:ALK)Markets Daily · 3 days agoPosted by Michael Walen on Nov 2nd, 2026 Air China (OTCMKTS:AIRYY – Get Free Report) and Alaska Air Group (NYSE:ALK – Get Free Report) are both mid-cap industrials companies, but which is the superior investment? We will contrast the two…
premium airline seats — Alaska Air Group Increases Luxury Seating by 40%The Korea Daily · 4 days agoDiscover how major airlines are moving away from budget travel by expanding premium airline seats by up to 40% to boost revenue. premium airline seats — Alaska Air Group Increases Luxury Seating by 40% Premium airline seats are becoming…
Alaska Air lays off 200 workers as fuel costs continue to climbHawaii Tribune-Herald · 5 days agoPublished 12:07 am Sunday, November 1, 2026 Alaska Air Group announced plans to eliminate 200 management positions, including 48 in Hawaii, amid rising fuel costs and efforts to reduce expenses. Alaska Airlines and Hawaiian Airlines planes…
Alaska Air Cuts 200 Jobs as Fuel Costs Push It Toward $700 Million Loss@cdnnow · 5 days agoAlaska Air Group is laying off about 200 back-office employees as soaring jet fuel prices push the parent of Alaska Airlines and Hawaiian Airlines toward a loss of as much as $700 million this year. The cuts include 125 positions in…
Alaska Air Group (ALK) Institutional Ownership 2026@MarketBeatMedia · 6 days ago$ALK MarketBeat Alaska Air Group (ALK) Institutional Ownership Institutional Ownership Changes (13F Filings) for Alaska Air Group (NYSE:ALK) ALK Institutional Buying and Selling by Quarter Alaska Air Group Major Shareholders & Ownership…
Alaska Air Group lays off over 100 people in WA, citing high jet fuel pricesYahoo Finance · 6 days agoAlaska Air Group announced today it's cutting about 200 jobs. The layoffs will affect non-contract employees at Alaska Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines and Horizon Airlines. The company told KIRO 7 News that 125 of the positions are in…
TD Cowen Remains a Buy on Alaska Air (ALK)The Globe and Mail · 6 days agoIn a report released today, Thomas Fitzgerald CFA from TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating on Alaska Air, with a price target of $41.00. Fitzgerald CFA covers the Industrials sector, focusing on stocks such as Alaska Air, JetBlue Airways, and…
Alaska Air cuts Hawaii jobs amid rising fuel costs@hawaiinewsnow · 6 days agoAlaska Air Group is cutting 46 Hawaii positions as part of a company wide reduction of 200 management jobs. HONOLULU (HawaiiNewsNow) - Alaska Air Group is cutting 46 Hawaii positions as part of a company-wide reduction of 200 management…
Agency Brief—Alaska Air Group hires Anomaly to showcase global reachadage.com · 6 days agoThis week, Ad Age has the exclusive on Alaska Airlinesâ new creative agency, plus a look at WPP and Stagwellâs third-quarter results. Agency BriefâAlaska Air Group hires Anomaly to showcase global reach What is yellow, fuzzyâand…
Alaska Air Group lays off 200 people, navigates challenging operating environmentFOX 13 Seattle · 6 days agoSEATTLE - Alaska Air Group laid off 200 people on Friday, specifically making the decision to reduce its non-contract workforce. The company cited the decision was based on navigating a challenging operating environment, including…
Alaska Air to Cut 200 Jobs as Fuel Costs Raise Risk of $700 Million LossAirways Magazine · 5 days agoSEATTLE — Alaska Air Group will eliminate approximately 200 non-contract positions as higher fuel costs pressure its finances, with CEO Ben Minicucci warning employees that the company could post a US$700 million adjusted pretax loss in…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 11 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onFiscal.ai

Trading closesAug 17, 2027 12:00 AM ET

Traded$578 (921 contracts)

This week$6

At stake$537

In the news5 headlines today, 32 this week

Followed here sinceOct 26, 2026

The rules

If Alaska Air Group Inc. reports Above 76% passenger load factor in Q1 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Prices it is about

Alaska Air Group, Inc.ALK · about the company38.70−3.25%

From 4Search Finance. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions