Average Wall Street bonus in 2026
$283,750median
$175,000$375,000
Median $283,750Middle half $262,500 – $305,729
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US hourly earnings growth in October (October 2026)
The odds
0.26%median
-0.2%0.6%
Median 0.26%Middle half 0.04% – 0.49%
How the odds have moved
Median: 0.3% on Oct 19, 0.26% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -0.1% | 90% | 85¢ | 95¢ | $1.05 | ||
| Above 0.0% | 80% | ▼ 1 | 75¢ | 84¢ | $1.19 | 164 |
| Above 0.1% | 68% | ▼ 2 | 63¢ | 73¢ | $1.37 | |
| Above 0.2% | 57% | ▼ 1 | 52¢ | 62¢ | $1.61 | 1.00 |
| Above 0.3% | 45% | ▼ 3 | 40¢ | 50¢ | $2.00 | 14.00 |
| Above 0.4% | 32% | ▼ 5 | 28¢ | 36¢ | $2.78 | 225 |
| Above 0.5% | 25% | ▼ 4 | 20¢ | 29¢ | $3.45 | 114 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news
No recent headlines name this market's subject.
Related markets
All jobs ›US retail jobs added this holiday season (September–December 2026)
572,467median
250,000650,000
Median 572,467
Unemployment in October (Oct 2026)
4.15%median
3.6%5.1%
Median 4.15%Middle half 4.08% – 4.23%
UK retail sales in October (October 2026)
50%Above 2.0%
-2%3%
US jobs revisions in the report covering October 2026
32,143median
-150,000150,000
Median 32,143
October 2026 Employment Combo · U3 & NFP
15%U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: 50-99k
- U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: 50-99k15%
- U3: 4.3%, NFP growth: 50-99k7%▲ 4
- U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: 100k or above6%
8 more
- U3: 4.4% or above, NFP growth: Below 50k5%▲ 1
- U3: 4.4% or above, NFP growth: 50-99k5%▲ 1
- U3: 4.4% or above, NFP growth: 100k or above5%▲ 1
- U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: Below 50k1%
- U3: 4.2%, NFP growth: Below 50k1%
- U3: 4.2%, NFP growth: 50-99k1%
- U3: 4.3%, NFP growth: Below 50k1%▼ 21
- U3: 4.3%, NFP growth: 100k or above1%▼ 4
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions