How high will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026?

Kalshi Economy › Rates & bonds Closes Nov 30 · prices read 2 h ago

The odds

5.39%median

30Y Yield now 5.250 −1.11%

5.36%5.67%

Median 5.39%

How the odds have moved

Median: 5.42% on Nov 2, 5.39% now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays
5.38% or above	55%	▼ 11	50¢	60¢	$1.67
5.39% or above	52%	▼ 11	47¢	57¢	$1.75
5.4% or above	49%	▼ 11	44¢	54¢	$1.85
5.41% or above	47%	▼ 10	42¢	52¢	$1.92
5.42% or above	44%	▼ 10	39¢	49¢	$2.04
5.43% or above	41%	▼ 10	36¢	46¢	$2.17
5.44% or above	39%	▼ 9	34¢	44¢	$2.27
5.45% or above	37%	▼ 9	32¢	42¢	$2.38
5.46% or above	34%	▼ 9	29¢	39¢	$2.56
5.47% or above	32%	▼ 8	27¢	37¢	$2.70
5.48% or above	30%	▼ 8	25¢	35¢	$2.86
5.49% or above	28%	▼ 8	23¢	33¢	$3.03
5.5% or above	26%	▼ 8	21¢	31¢	$3.23
5.51% or above	24%	▼ 7	19¢	29¢	$3.45
5.52% or above	22%	▼ 7	17¢	27¢	$3.70
5.53% or above	21%	▼ 6	16¢	26¢	$3.85
5.54% or above	19%	▼ 7	14¢	24¢	$4.17
5.55% or above	18%	▼ 6	13¢	23¢	$4.35
5.56% or above	17%	▼ 5	12¢	22¢	$4.55
5.57% or above	15%	▼ 5	10¢	20¢	$5.00
5.58% or above	14%	▼ 5	9¢	19¢	$5.26
5.59% or above	13%	▼ 5	8¢	18¢	$5.56
5.6% or above	12%	▼ 4	7¢	17¢	$5.88
5.61% or above	11%	▼ 4	6¢	16¢	$6.25
5.62% or above	10%	▼ 4	5¢	15¢	$6.67
5.63% or above	9%	▼ 4	4¢	14¢	$7.14
5.64% or above	8%	▼ 4	3¢	13¢	$7.69
5.65% or above	8%	▼ 3	3¢	13¢	$7.69
5.66% or above	7%	▼ 3	2¢	12¢	$8.33
5.67% or above	6%	▼ 3	1¢	11¢	$9.09

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Treasury

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Treasury yields are mixed as oil prices tumble ahead of the midtermsCNBC · 5 h agoU.S. Treasury yields were mixed early Monday as investors gear up for another busy week of economic data and corporate earnings, as well as the midterm elections. The 10-year Treasury was down by 2 basis points at 4.906%. The 30-year…
Treasury yields fall as investors await more economic dataCNBC · 3 days agoU.S. Treasury yields declined on Friday as investors weighed a flurry of economic data and the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision. The 10-year Treasury, which is used as a benchmark for mortgages, auto loans, and credit card…
Clients using cash and treasuries amid selloff, says Morgan Stanley's Kathleen EntwistleCNBC · 3 days agoKathleen Entwistle, Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management private wealth advisor, joins 'Fast Money' to talk how to position portfolios around a volatile market. Clients using cash and treasuries amid selloff, says Morgan Stanley's…
Treasury accepts role in staff member's deathBBC News · 3 days agoHM Treasury says it accepts a coroner's concerns after Chloe Moffat, the PA to one of its directors, took her own life The Treasury has accepted it contributed to the death of a personal assistant and said "immediate steps" have been taken…
Crypto Treasury Management News AnalysisOneSafe.io · 12 h agoIf Ripple’s executives are right about a five-year horizon for XRP as the institutional gold standard for crypto rails, what should a startup or DAO actually change about its crypto treasury management today? The answer, drawn from the…
Vanguard Total Treasury ETF declares $0.2629 dividendSeeking Alpha · 5 h agoVanguard Total Treasury ETF declares a $0.2629 monthly dividend with a 4.28% forward yield. - Vanguard Total Treasury ETF (VTG) declares $0.2629/share monthly dividend. - Payable Nov. 4; for shareholders of record Nov. 2; ex-div Nov. 2.
Treasury flags $8B in suspicious foreign-directed transfers through US money services firmsFox News · 3 days agoSecretary Bessent, FBI Director Patel hold a news conference in Minnesota to announce the administration’s latest efforts in its war on fraud. The Trump administration uncovered what it says is more than $8 billion in potentially…
USDC Treasury burns 100 million USDC on SolanaCrypto Briefing · 3 h agoCircle's treasury removed roughly $100.15 million in stablecoins from circulation in another routine supply adjustment The USDC Treasury burned 100 million USDC on November 2, 2026, according to blockchain tracker Whale Alert. The tokens…
Japan Post Holdings Announces Treasury Stock AcquisitionThe Globe and Mail · 3 h agoAn update from JAPAN POST HOLDINGS Co ( (JP:6178) ) is now available. Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. announced the acquisition of 11,646,800 shares of its treasury stock for approximately 17.7 billion yen, as part of a larger repurchase…
Bhutan's Bitcoin Move Tests Crypto Treasury Managementonesafe.io · 12 h agoBefore this, public-sector Bitcoin holdings were almost entirely passive — self-custodied cold wallets. Bhutan’s decision signals that even sovereign treasurers see a cost to idle capital and accept structured delegation with proper…
Treasury Proposes Expansion of the Outbound Investment ProgramThe National Law Review · 18 h agoThe proposed regulations in the NPRM expand Treasury’s jurisdiction in several key ways. To Whom does the Outbound NPRM apply? In addition, Treasury would broaden the “principal place of business” concept to include where an entity’s main…
Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF declares $0.1889 dividendSeeking Alpha · 5 h agoVanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF declares a $0.1889 monthly dividend with a 3.91% forward yield. - Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (VGSH) declares $0.1889/share monthly dividend. - Payable Nov. 4; for shareholders of record Nov. 2; ex-div…

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How high will the 30Y US Treasury yield get by Jan 1, 2027?

24%5.7% or above

5.64%5.84%

Economy › Rates & bonds

How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

22%Below 4.00%

3.9%4.55%

Economy › Rates & bonds

10Y US Treasury yield on Nov 2, 2026?

4.88%median

4.83%5.15%

Median 4.88%Middle half 4.86% – 4.9%

Economy › Rates & bonds

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

9%Below 1.0%

0%4.8%

Economy › Rates & bonds

How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

31%Below 4.60%

4.4%5.25%

Economy › Rates & bonds

How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

35%5.10%

4.95%5.4%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onU.S. Department of the Treasury

Trading closesNov 30, 2026 3:30 PM ET

Traded$0 (0 contracts)

Followed here sinceNov 1, 2026

The rules

If the daily published par yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury is above 5.37% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Prices it is about

30Y Yield^TYX · settles on its price5.250−1.11%
TLTTLT · tracks it82.10+0.73%

From 4Search Finance. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions