Who will have a #1 hit this year? (2026)

Kalshi Culture › Music Closes Dec 21 · $848 today · $36.6K traded · $15.7K at stake · prices read 23 min ago

The odds

92%Mariah Carey
  • Mariah Carey92%▲ 1
  • Tate McRae61%▼ 8
  • Morgan Wallen31%▲ 4
  • Travis Scott21%▲ 6
  • SZA20%▲ 6
  • Sabrina Carpenter19%▼ 1
  • Kendrick Lamar18%▲ 1
  • Beyoncé17%▼ 1
  • Post Malone16%▲ 2
  • Chappell Roan14%
  • Future11%
  • Lana Del Rey11%▼ 1
102 more
  • Lady Gaga10%▼ 1
  • Zach Bryan9%
  • Frank Ocean9%
  • Olivia Dean9%
  • Nicki Minaj8%▲ 1
  • Young Thug8%
  • Luke Combs8%
  • Billie Eilish8%▼ 5
  • Lil Baby8%
  • Don Toliver8%
  • The Weeknd7%
  • sombr7%▼ 1
  • Justin Bieber7%
  • KAROL G7%▼ 3
  • Doechii7%
  • KATSEYE7%
  • Tyler, The Creator7%
  • Lil Uzi Vert6%
  • SIENNA SPIRO6%▲ 1
  • Tame Impala6%
  • Dua Lipa6%
  • Shawn Mendes6%
  • Selena Gomez6%
  • Zara Larsson5%▲ 1
  • J Balvin5%
  • Lil Wayne5%▼ 1
  • 21 Savage5%▼ 1
  • Pharrell Williams5%
  • Offset5%
  • Roddy Ricch5%
  • Chris Brown4%▼ 1
  • David Guetta4%
  • Daniel Caesar4%
  • Megan Thee Stallion4%▼ 2
  • PinkPantheress4%
  • Gracie Abrams4%
  • Ed Sheeran4%
  • Rihanna4%
  • Coldplay4%
  • Khalid4%▼ 1
  • Jason Derulo4%
  • USHER4%
  • Justin Timberlake4%
  • Migos4%
  • Polo G4%
  • PARTYNEXTDOOR4%
  • Ice Spice4%
  • Addison Rae4%
  • Shaboozey4%
  • Rauw Alejandro3%
  • Calvin Harris3%
  • J. Cole3%▲ 1
  • Doja Cat3%▼ 1
  • Sam Smith3%▲ 1
  • Charlie Puth3%
  • Kodak Black3%
  • Big Sean3%
  • The Kid LAROI3%
  • Camilo3%
  • Bryson Tiller3%

How the odds have moved

Mariah Carey: 91% on Oct 20, 92% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Mariah Carey 92% ▲ 1 91¢ 92¢ $1.09 5.9K
Tate McRae 61% ▼ 8 59¢ 62¢ $1.61 13.2K
Morgan Wallen 31% ▲ 4 29¢ 33¢ $3.03 13.1K
Travis Scott 21% ▲ 6 9¢ 26¢ $3.85 3.4K
SZA 20% ▲ 6 16¢ 23¢ $4.35 1.5K
Sabrina Carpenter 19% ▼ 1 14¢ 23¢ $4.35 4.1K
Kendrick Lamar 18% ▲ 1 13¢ 23¢ $4.35 3.9K
Beyoncé 17% ▼ 1 12¢ 22¢ $4.55 7.9K
Post Malone 16% ▲ 2 14¢ 18¢ $5.56 11.0K
Chappell Roan 14% 14¢ 15¢ $6.67 13.1K
Future 11% 8¢ 14¢ $7.14 13.5K
Lana Del Rey 11% ▼ 1 8¢ 14¢ $7.14 2.3K
Lady Gaga 10% ▼ 1 8¢ 12¢ $8.33 2.1K
Zach Bryan 9% 8¢ 10¢ $10.00 10.7K
Frank Ocean 9% 7¢ 11¢ $9.09 2.4K
Olivia Dean 9% 5¢ 12¢ $8.33 9.9K
Nicki Minaj 8% ▲ 1 7¢ 9¢ $11.11 1.2K
Young Thug 8% 5¢ 11¢ $9.09 1.8K
Luke Combs 8% 7¢ 9¢ $11.11 4.7K
Billie Eilish 8% ▼ 5 7¢ 8¢ $12.50 4.3K
Lil Baby 8% 4¢ 11¢ $9.09 636
Don Toliver 8% 7¢ 8¢ $12.50 9.6K
The Weeknd 7% 5¢ 9¢ $11.11 10.8K
sombr 7% ▼ 1 6¢ 8¢ $12.50 741
Justin Bieber 7% 4¢ 9¢ $11.11 2.1K
KAROL G 7% ▼ 3 5¢ 8¢ $12.50 7.7K
Doechii 7% 4¢ 9¢ $11.11 1.8K
KATSEYE 7% 4¢ 9¢ $11.11 4.2K
Tyler, The Creator 7% 5¢ 8¢ $12.50 3.8K
Lil Uzi Vert 6% 4¢ 8¢ $12.50 1.4K
SIENNA SPIRO 6% ▲ 1 4¢ 8¢ $12.50 1.5K
Tame Impala 6% 2¢ 10¢ $10.00 676
Dua Lipa 6% 5¢ 6¢ $16.67 2.9K
Shawn Mendes 6% 3¢ 8¢ $12.50 1.5K
Selena Gomez 6% 2¢ 9¢ $11.11 76.00
Zara Larsson 5% ▲ 1 4¢ 6¢ $16.67 5.7K
J Balvin 5% 3¢ 6¢ $16.67 638
Lil Wayne 5% ▼ 1 3¢ 6¢ $16.67 5.3K
21 Savage 5% ▼ 1 2¢ 7¢ $14.29 135
Pharrell Williams 5% 3¢ 6¢ $16.67 32.00
Offset 5% 2¢ 7¢ $14.29 88.00
Roddy Ricch 5% 2¢ 7¢ $14.29 120
Chris Brown 4% ▼ 1 3¢ 5¢ $20.00 2.8K
David Guetta 4% 2¢ 6¢ $16.67 490
Daniel Caesar 4% 2¢ 6¢ $16.67 11.00
Megan Thee Stallion 4% ▼ 2 3¢ 5¢ $20.00 2.3K
PinkPantheress 4% 3¢ 5¢ $20.00 1.8K
Gracie Abrams 4% 2¢ 6¢ $16.67 5.8K
Ed Sheeran 4% 3¢ 4¢ $25.00 2.2K
Rihanna 4% 2¢ 5¢ $20.00 3.2K
Coldplay 4% 2¢ 5¢ $20.00 585
Khalid 4% ▼ 1 1¢ 6¢ $16.67 847
Jason Derulo 4% 2¢ 5¢ $20.00 91.00
USHER 4% 2¢ 5¢ $20.00 223
Justin Timberlake 4% 1¢ 6¢ $16.67 52.00
Migos 4% 1¢ 6¢ $16.67 46.00
Polo G 4% 1¢ 6¢ $16.67 52.00
PARTYNEXTDOOR 4% 2¢ 5¢ $20.00 2.00
Ice Spice 4% 2¢ 5¢ $20.00 503
Addison Rae 4% 2¢ 5¢ $20.00 382
Shaboozey 4% 3¢ 4¢ $25.00 1.0K
Rauw Alejandro 3% 1¢ 5¢ $20.00 490
Calvin Harris 3% 2¢ 4¢ $25.00 807
J. Cole 3% ▲ 1 2¢ 4¢ $25.00 14.8K
Doja Cat 3% ▼ 1 2¢ 4¢ $25.00 2.5K
Sam Smith 3% ▲ 1 1¢ 5¢ $20.00 619
Charlie Puth 3% 2¢ 4¢ $25.00 1.1K
Kodak Black 3% 1¢ 5¢ $20.00 37.00
Big Sean 3% 1¢ 5¢ $20.00 60.00
The Kid LAROI 3% 2¢ 4¢ $25.00 189
Camilo 3% 1¢ 5¢ $20.00 100
Bryson Tiller 3% 1¢ 5¢ $20.00 36.00
Stray Kids 3% 2¢ 4¢ $25.00 2.3K
John Mayer 3% 2¢ 4¢ $25.00 233
mgk 3% 2¢ 4¢ $25.00 1.8K
Lil Yachty 3% 1¢ 5¢ $20.00 76.00
Fred again.. 3% 2¢ 4¢ $25.00 447
Alex Warren 3% ▼ 2 1¢ 5¢ $20.00 1.7K
Lola Young 3% 2¢ 4¢ $25.00 125
Kanye West / Ye 3% 1¢ 4¢ $25.00 22.9K
BLACKPINK 3% 2¢ 3¢ $33.33 2.0K
Daft Punk 3% 1¢ 4¢ $25.00 408
Joji 3% 2¢ 3¢ $33.33 2.3K
Charli xcx 3% 1¢ 4¢ $25.00 8.4K
ROSALÍA 3% 1¢ 4¢ $25.00 86.00
Benson Boone 3% 1¢ 4¢ $25.00 2.2K
Tyla 3% ▼ 1 2¢ 3¢ $33.33 1.5K
EsDeeKid 3% 1¢ 4¢ $25.00 451
Eminem 2% ▼ 7 2¢ 13¢ $7.69 224
Ozuna 2% 1¢ 3¢ $33.33 150
Anuel AA 2% 1¢ 3¢ $33.33 307
Tyga 2% 1¢ 3¢ $33.33 150
Bebe Rexha 2% 1¢ 3¢ $33.33 382
NF 2% 1¢ 3¢ $33.33 293
Leon Thomas 2% 1¢ 3¢ $33.33 740
Sia 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 2.0K
Linkin Park 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 1.0K
Quavo 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 150
YoungBoy Never Broke Again 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 1.0K
Swae Lee 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 1.7K
Kali Uchis 2% ▼ 3 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 154
Kid Cudi 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 25.00
2 Chainz 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 142
Fall Out Boy 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 605
Lewis Capaldi 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 476
Logic 2% 3¢ $33.33 300
Lil Nas X 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 26.00
Childish Gambino 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 99.00
The Marías 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 316
Maroon 5 1% 2¢ $50.00 326
Trippie Redd 1% 2¢ $50.00 307
Geese 1% 2¢ $50.00 1.0K
Clairo 1% 2¢ $50.00 677
Grimes 1% ▼ 1 2¢ $50.00 408

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Mariah Carey, Tate McRae, Morgan Wallen

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  • Albania<1%▼ 1
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  • JAY-Z78%▼ 9
  • Beyoncé25%▲ 13
  • Miley Cyrus11%▼ 8
54 more
  • Lady Gaga9%▲ 5
  • Taylor Swift7%▲ 1
  • Justin Bieber6%▲ 2
  • Harry Styles5%▼ 3
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  • Ariana Grande3%
  • Lil Wayne2%▼ 1
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  • SZA2%
  • Travis Scott2%
  • Backstreet Boys2%
  • Elton John2%
  • Pink2%
  • Pearl Jam2%
  • Chris Brown2%
  • Christina Aguilera2%
  • Doja Cat2%
  • Megan Thee Stallion2%
  • Ice Spice2%
  • Cynthia Erivo2%
  • Tyler, The Creator2%
  • Tate McRae2%▼ 2
  • Drake2%
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  • Foo Fighters2%
  • Lil Baby2%
  • Chappell Roan2%
  • Post Malone2%
  • Dua Lipa2%
  • Metallica2%
  • Sabrina Carpenter2%
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  • Karol G2%
  • Green Day2%
  • Coldplay2%
  • Cardi B2%
  • Mariah Carey2%
  • BLACKPINK2%
  • Outkast2%
  • T-Pain2%
  • Ella Langley2%
  • Stevie Wonder2%
  • Sexyy Red1%
  • Ed Sheeran1%
  • Madonna1%
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  • Rauw Alejandro100%
  • SZA100%
  • PinkPantheress100%
127 more
  • Cardi B100%
  • Lana Del Rey86%▲ 14
  • Dua Lipa76%▲ 1
  • Don Toliver74%▲ 1
  • Kodak Black73%▲ 6
  • Young Thug68%▼ 6
  • Kali Uchis57%▼ 1
  • Doechii55%▲ 17
  • Lil Uzi Vert49%▼ 2
  • Lil Wayne48%▲ 5
  • Bad Bunny48%▼ 13
  • Ella Langley43%
  • Ice Spice43%
  • J Balvin39%▼ 2
  • 21 Savage38%▼ 28
  • T-Pain38%▲ 1
  • The Weeknd37%▲ 1
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  • Lil Yachty36%▲ 4
  • Anuel AA36%▼ 3
  • Megan Thee Stallion36%
  • KAROL G33%▲ 1
  • Drake33%▲ 5
  • Bruno Mars32%▼ 1
  • ROSALÍA32%▲ 4
  • Tyler, The Creator32%
  • Sabrina Carpenter31%▼ 1
  • Imagine Dragons30%▲ 22
  • The Kid LAROI28%▼ 10
  • Sexyy Red27%▼ 1
  • Justin Bieber26%▼ 1
  • JAY-Z26%▼ 1
  • Post Malone25%
  • Ozuna25%▼ 2
  • Pharrell Williams24%▼ 1
  • Nicki Minaj24%▲ 1
  • Eminem23%▼ 2
  • Doja Cat23%▼ 1
  • Tyla23%▼ 3
  • Quavo21%▼ 2
  • Jason Derulo20%
  • Leon Thomas19%▼ 1
  • Shaboozey19%▼ 1
  • Billie Eilish18%▼ 3
  • YoungBoy Never Broke Again18%▲ 6
  • Calvin Harris18%▼ 2
  • Offset18%▼ 1
  • 2 Chainz17%
  • Coldplay17%▼ 3
  • Chris Brown17%▼ 2
  • Bryson Tiller17%▼ 1
  • Kendrick Lamar16%▼ 5
  • Lil Baby16%▼ 1
  • Guns N' Roses16%▼ 1
  • The Marías15%▼ 3
  • Lola Young15%▼ 1
  • Miley Cyrus15%▼ 1
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions