Which party will win the U.S. House? (2026)
90%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party90%
- Republican Party10%
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Alaska House winner? (2026)
The odds
78%Nick Begich III
- Nick Begich III78%
- Bill Hill20%
- Eric Hafner3%
How the odds have moved
Nick Begich III: 87% on Oct 20, 78% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Begich III | 78% | 78¢ | 79¢ | $1.27 | 41.9K | |
| Bill Hill | 20% | 20¢ | 21¢ | $4.76 | 10.2K | |
| Eric Hafner | 3% | 3¢ | 3¢ | $32.26 | 33.8K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Alaska House, Nick Begich III, Bill Hill
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Fisheries, rising costs and schools dominate Southwestern Alaska House debateFour candidates are vying for an open seat to represent the Southwestern Alaska House District 37, one of the state's largest rural districts where fisheries, skyrocketing costs of living, transportation and schools are top of mind this… -
PACs backing Bill Hill discourage votes for incarcerated Democrat in Alaska's U.S. House raceOct. 22—JUNEAU — With less than two weeks until Election Day, political groups have spent hundreds of thousands of dollars highlighting that the top vote-getting Democrat on the ballot in Alaska's U.S. House race is serving a 20-year… -
Vote Bill Hill for U.S. HouseCovering the Chilkat Valley and Haines, Alaska since 1966 Bill Hill, candidate for U.S. House of Representatives, is relatively new to the political scene and likely unknown to many Haines residents. We are writing to voice our support for… -
Alaska Independent Bill Hill Has Caught Up to Nick Begich, New Polls SayNearly 232,000 independent voters cast ballots in North Carolina's first five days of early voting, an 88% increase from 2022. Independents now represent 40% of registered voters in the state and are showing up at polls in unprecedented… -
A federal prisoner in New York could play spoiler in Alaska’s House raceEric Hafner could siphon away Democratic votes from independent candidate Bill Hill in a critical race against Republican US Rep. Nick Begich III. The Democrat running for Alaska’s US House seat didn’t make an appearance at last week’s… -
Opinion: Look beyond the labelA party label is not a character reference. Nor is a place on the ballot proof that a candidate knows Alaska, cares about its people or deserves their votes. Alaskans can disagree sharply about policy and still expect candidates to have a… -
Business Owner Tim Gaspar and Labor-Backed Barri Worth Girvan Face Off in Los AngelesThat resume is the center of her pitch to voters. "Delivering core city services is my bread and butter," she told the Los Angeles Times. He argues that City Hall needs someone from outside government. "They're missing the business… -
“We've Been Conned”: The 65-Year-Old Lie Behind Closed PrimariesEditor's Note: The following is an exclusive series on IVN from the better elections group Open Primaries. The content originated from the group's weekly newsletter, "Primary Buzz." In Los Angeles's District 3, business owner Tim Gaspar… -
Ranked Choice Voting Won’t Hand Bill Hill A Win in Alaska. Here’s What CouldIndependent candidate Bill Hill faces a steep climb in Alaska's House race, as ranked choice voting alone won't get him across the finish line against Republican incumbent Nick Begich without winning over more first-choice voters. Monday… -
Independent streakThe unofficial guide to official Washington, every morning and weekday afternoons. 10/20/2026 01:59 PM EDT ANCHORAGE, Alaska — National Democrats are lining up behind Bill Hill, a fisherman and educator they hope can oust GOP Rep. Nick… -
Will Republicans Skip Democrat on Democrat Races?In Los Angeles's District 3, business owner Tim Gaspar and labor-backed Barri Worth Girvan compete in a Democrat-versus-Democrat runoff where independent and Republican voters could decide the outcome. Plus, Matthew McConaughey takes on… -
Sullivan cites hard working record during Chamber forumSen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska), right, and Meg Nordale, president of GHEMM Co., discuss the U.S. Senate race during a Fairbanks Chamber of Commerce conversation on Tuesday. In a one-person, conversational panel at the Greater Fairbanks…
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions