Jobs numbers in October 2026?
72Kmedian
-50K150K
Median 72KMiddle half 18K – 105K
Install
US retail jobs added this holiday season (September–December 2026)
The odds
433,333median
250,000650,000
Median 433,333
How the odds have moved
Median: 473,301 on Oct 13, 433,333 now.
The median price the market implied over time, and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 300,000 jobs | 62% | ▼ 27 | 19¢ | 86¢ | 5.3K |
| Above 350,000 jobs | 62% | ▲ 28 | 3¢ | 87¢ | 3.3K |
| Above 400,000 jobs | 62% | ▼ 2 | 10¢ | 82¢ | 3.7K |
| Above 450,000 jobs | 44% | ▼ 11 | 31¢ | 70¢ | 1.7K |
| Above 500,000 jobs | 26% | ▼ 32 | 23¢ | 65¢ | 4.9K |
| Above 550,000 jobs | 23% | ▼ 51 | 31¢ | 42¢ | 6.7K |
| Above 600,000 jobs | 18% | ▼ 19 | 13¢ | 23¢ | 9.9K |
Related markets
All inflation & jobs ›Jobs numbers in Nov 2026?
67Kmedian
-50K150K
Median 67KMiddle half 8K – 113K
Washington aerospace manufacturing employment average in 2026
84,333median
79,00093,000
Median 84,333Middle half 83,635 – 84,871
Washington professional, scientific, and technical services employment at end of 2026
258,981median
230,000285,000
Median 258,981Middle half 254,205 – 262,708
Average Wall Street bonus in 2026
$283,750median
$175,000$375,000
Median $283,750Middle half $262,500 – $305,729
Visitors to Florida in 2026
141.4median
134150
Median 141.4Middle half 140.2 – 143.1
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Search. Read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
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